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Braves vs Phillies NLDS Game 4 Prediction, Odds & Picks: Can Atlanta Stave Off Elimination?
Written by: Devon Platana
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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The 2023 MLB playoffs continue on Monday with Game 4 of the NLDS between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies. The home team picked up a huge win last night, putting the Phillies just one win away from advancing to their second straight National League Championship Series.
The Phillies hardly broke a sweat in Game 3, cruising to a 10-2 blowout win over the Braves. The floodgates opened with a six-run third inning as Bryce Harper homered twice in the same frame while J.T. Realmuto also hit a round-tripper before homering again in the sixth.
Can Atlanta pull things together to force a Game 5? Or will Philadelphia send the opposition packing with another dominant victory?
Below is a complete Braves vs. Phillies NLDS Game 4 betting preview, complete with the latest MLB odds, a prediction, and the best bets to make.
Braves vs Phillies Tonight — NLDS Game 4
ATL vs. PHI Game Information
- Matchup: Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies (PHI leads 2-1)
- Venue & Location: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, PA)
- Date: Thursday, Oct. 12, 2023
- Game Time: 8:07 p.m. Eastern Time
- Where to Watch Braves vs. Phillies Tonight: TBS
Braves vs Phillies Game 4 Odds
Game odds as of Thursday, Oct. 12 at 9:05 a.m. ET, courtesy of Bovada. Odds from other reputable sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.
Spread
- Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+115)
- Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-135)
Over/Under
- Over 8.5 Runs (-105)
- Under 8.5 Runs (-115)
Moneyline
- Atlanta Braves -153
- Philadelphia Phillies +128
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Now, back to some baseball…
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Braves vs Phillies Probable Pitchers Game 4 (Oct. 12)
- Braves: Spencer Strider (1 start — 0-1, 1.29 ERA)
- Phillies: Ranger Suarez (1 start — 0-0, 0.00 ERA)
Braves vs Phillies Betting Trends
- Atlanta is 2-4 straight up in its last six games against Philadelphia.
- Philadelphia is 9-1 straight up in its last 10 home games.
- The total has hit the Over in seven of Atlanta’s last eight road games.
- The total has hit the Under in seven of Philadelphia’s last eight games on a Thursday.
- The total has hit the Over in four of the last five Atlanta-Philadelphia matchups played at Citizens Bank Park.
Braves vs Phillies Game 4 Prediction
After finishing as the MLB’s top team in the regular season, the Braves have been outplayed by the Phillies, more often than not, through three games.
Atlanta’s offense made waves throughout the 2023 campaign, however, Brian Snitker’s team has been outscored 17-6 in the NLDS. That includes two efforts of two or fewer runs, which isn’t going to win anyone games in the playoffs.
In fact, the only time that the Braves looked impressive in this series was when they battled back from a 4-0 deficit in Game 2. It doesn’t help that some Atlanta players just aren’t stepping up when needed.
For example, Michael Harris II is hitless through 11 at-bats. Ronald Acuna Jr., Marcell Ozuna, Eddie Rosario, and Travis d’Arnaud are all batting .200 or worse with 11 strikeouts between the quartet.
Meanwhile, the Phillies’ lineup has been playing tremendously. They have six players batting at least .300 in this series with Harper leading the charge, slashing .435/.571/1.273 with three home runs.
That’s not even to mention how four other Phillies have hit home runs in the NLDS, further highlighting just how well Philadelphia’s offense is clicking.
It’ll be interesting to see if the home team’s offensive production continues with Spencer Strider taking the mound for the Braves. The 24-year-old ace may have picked up the loss in Game 1, but it wasn’t his fault as he struck out eight Phillies with only one earned run allowed over seven innings.
Meanwhile, Philly is turning to Ranger Suarez, who also pitched in the series opener. He pitched 3 2/3 scoreless innings before the bullpen carried the Phillies for the rest of the way, leaving time to tell if he has a similar performance in store tonight.
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Even though momentum is on the Phillies’ side, I’m taking the Braves to force a Game 5. The Braves have the talent to even this series and I trust Brian Snitker to get his players back on track before it’s too late.
Having said that, taking the Under on the 8.5-run total isn’t a bad idea. Strider and Suarez both looked as solid as can be in Game 1, increasing the probability of a pitcher’s duel tonight.
Braves vs Phillies Game 4 Prediction: ATL 4, PHI 3
Best Bet: Under 8.5 Runs (-115 on Bovada)
Braves vs Phillies Game 4 Player Prop
When it comes to the best Braves vs. Phillies Game 4 player prop, I’m going with Bryce Harper to hit a home run.
Harper has been a man on a mission in this series, racking up three HRs in as many games. He’s now homered in six of his last 10 games against the Braves, racking up seven HRs during that span with four of those round-trippers taking place at Citizens Bank Park.
Even if Strider has a strong showing on the mound, I can’t doubt Harper’s bat at the moment.
Bet: Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+450 on Bovada)
More MLB Betting Content
How can I bet on Braves vs Phillies?
All of the top online sports betting sites will have Braves vs. Phillies Game 4 odds, but here are some of the sites we recommend most for baseball betting enthusiasts.
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Devon is a Master of Journalism graduate who joined the sports betting world in 2020. His favorite leagues to cover are the NHL, NBA and NFL, and has a soft spot for fantasy football specifically. Outside of sports, he enjoys the finer things in life like pasta, live music and getting even more tattoos.
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