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Braves vs Mets Predictions, Odds & Best Bets: Are We Really Betting on the Mets??
Written by: Daniel Collins
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Welcome to the weekend! Get you favorite Happy Hour beverage and snacks ready, because we have a great one in store for us up at Citi Field. Anytime you tune into an Atlanta Braves game this season, you’re always in for a treat.
The first place, NL East and Major League leading 72-41 Atlanta Braves take on the disappointing, trade deadline selling 52-62 New York Mets, Friday Night.
The Braves are coming off a 5-7 loss in Pittsburgh, Thursday night, and welcome back ol’ man Charlie Morton to the bump. While the Braves are only 5-5 in their last 10, they lead the season long series vs the Mets 5-1.
The Mets were able to slow down the surging Chicago Cubs and win their latest Home Series. However, they were coming off of two road sweeps by the Royals and Orioles. So, what can we expect in tonight’s matchup?
It’s time to look under the hood.
Braves vs Mets Game Information
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Citi Field, Queens, NY
- Date: Friday, August 11th, 2023
- First Pitch: 7:10 PM EST
Pitching Matchup
- Atlanta Braves: Charlie Morton (10-10, 3.86 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 9.6 K/9)
- New York Mets: Tylor Megill (6-5, 5.45 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 7.22 K/9)
Betting Odds
- Odds courtesy of Bovada
Runline
- Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-110)
- New York Mets +1.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- Atlanta Braves (-175)
- New York Mets (+144)
Run Total
- Over 9.5 (-115)
- Under 9.5 (-105)
Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Predictions & Best Bets
Looking at some trends provided by Team Rankings the Braves haven’t been nearly reliable enough covering the run line coming off of a loss, or as an Away Favorite, only covering the run line 42.5% (17-23) and 45.7% (21-25) on the year. Now, having said that, against the NL East, the Braves have on the best run line records in the league at 71.4% (20-8).
If we start focusing on this series, this year alone, the Braves are not only 5-1 against the Mets, but 5-1 to the run line, as well & 1-1 at Citi Field. The public, per usual, is absolutely in love with the Braves run line — seeing 95% of the handle at 78% of the bets going that way as of 11PM PST Thursday night.
Remember though, we’re here to look under the hood and what do we find? We find a pitcher in Tylor Megill who’s really found some comfort at home. The guy is essentially the perfectly ripe avocado at home, while being immediately tossed in the trash whenever he has to make a start on the road.
Simple peek of his stats via ESPN.com, Megill has a 2.79 ERA & 1.19 WHIP over 7 home starts vs a staggering 8.20 ERA & 2.19 WHIP on the road. Here’s where he may struggle though: his pitch arsenal is a tough matchup for him against this Braves roster. According to Baseball Savant, Megill throws is fastball 54.5% of the time and with guys like Matt Olson and Sean Murphy ranking in the Top 10 vs the fastball — somebody’s hitting Yahtzee. His next most frequently thrown pitch is his slider, where Olson, Ronald Acuña and Ozzie Albies all have Top 15 SLG %’s.
Charlie Morton certainly hasn’t been great over his last 5 starts, however, going 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA & 1.54 WHIP. His only start against the Mets this year came on May 1st in New York where he gave up 4 runs in 4.2 IP with 4 BB’s, something he’s really struggled with over the last month.
Shopping around and looking at some prop lines to see if there are any tells the night before and seeing Charlie Morton Earned Runs Allowed being offered at 2.5, when he’s hit that in four straight is a bit of a tell, in my opinion.
So, if you’re with me, we’re going to gamble a little bit here. We’re certainly not here to just sit on the sidelines with a pair of pom-pom’s and a diet coke are we?? (Not saying there’s a single thing wrong with either of those game time accessories!)
THE BEST BET: BRAVES -1.5 (-115) via Bovada
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Player Props: Sean Murphy RBI (+115) or for the BRAVE, HR (+350)
I love Sean Murphy today. Great numbers against Megill and his pitch arsenal, great splits against the Mets staff and in Citi Field.
The wind looks like to be slightly blowing out to to right field, so don’t be afraid to sprinkle on Matt Olson to do what he’s been doing regularly this season, but it’s Friday Night and I’m looking to be unique. Why the hell not??
This is going to be such an interesting game to watch. I won’t be unloading the clip by any means, but it certainly will get the juices flowin.
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Daniel Collins is a sports fanatic and data-driven bettor. He has expertise in the NFL, NBA, and NHL. He’s a big fan of the Titans #titanup, Predators #predators and Arsenal #coyg. If he isn’t watching, betting on or writing about sports, he loves the outdoors, traveling, strong coffee and delicious food. You can follow him on X @SweatpantJesus. Peace and Love
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