Brewers vs. Cubs (August 20): Will Milwaukee see Saturday success against Stroman?

After letting a winnable game get away from them yesterday, the Milwaukee Brewers can’t afford another letdown this afternoon against the Chicago Cubs.

Seven runs will get the job done more often than not, but the Brew Crew blew three leads in an 8-7 loss in yesterday’s series opener at Wrigley Field.

With the St. Louis Cardinals winning their fifth straight game, Milwaukee is now four games back in the NL Central. Their loss also hurt in the NL wild-card standings, as they would have gained ground on the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres yesterday.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Milwaukee Brewers (63-55, 32-31 away, 2nd in the NL Central) vs. Chicago Cubs (51-67, 25-34 home, 3rd in the NL Central)
• Venue & Location: Wrigley Field (Chicago, Illinois)
• Date: Saturday, August 20, 2022
• Game Time: 2:20 p.m. Eastern Time (1:20 p.m. local time)
• Brewers vs. Cubs TV Info: FS1

Brewers vs. Cubs Pitching Matchup

• Milwaukee Brewers: Freddy Peralta (2022: 11 starts, 4-3, 4.21 ERA)
• Chicago Cubs: Marcus Stroman (2022: 16 starts, 3-5, 3.96 ERA)

Brewers vs. Cubs Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. Odds from other online sportsbooks may also be included in this article.

Moneyline

• Milwaukee Brewers -126
• Chicago Cubs +108

Over/Under

• Over 9 (-112)
• Under 9 (-108)

Run Line

• Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+128)
• Chicago Cubs +1.5 (-154)

Will Peralta Continue Career Success Against Cubs?

This season has not quite panned out as hoped for Freddy Peralta, but he will have a key role to play down the stretch for Milwaukee.

In his third start since returning from an extended stint on the IL, he took the loss on Monday against the Los Angeles Dodgers. In four innings, he allowed just two hits and one run, but he walked four and threw 92 pitches.

August Starts for Freddy Peralta

• at Pittsburgh: 3.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R (2 ER), 2 BB, 3 K
• vs. Tampa Bay: 5 IP, 2 H, 2 R (2 ER), 0 BB, 4 K
• vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 4 IP, 2 H, R (ER), 4 BB, 3 K

A cleaner, longer outing is needed today, with the bullpen having logged three innings in yesterday’s game and 3.1 innings in Thursday’s win over the Dodgers.

Peralta has enjoyed a lot of success against today’s opposition, with more wins against the Cubs than any other team. In 12 career appearances (seven starts), he is 5-1 with a 3.64 ERA. His lone loss to them came in his only start in 2020, a 9-1 loss in Chicago on July 26, 2020.

The Brewers might not need to score seven runs again today, but a little run support will go a long way for Peralta.

• In games Peralta has started and gotten three or more runs of support, Milwaukee is 5-1.
• In games Peralta has started and gotten fewer than three runs of support, Milwaukee is 1-4.

That makes Stroman’s form encouraging if you’re backing the Brew Crew today in the Windy City.

Stroman has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 11 of his 16 starts this season, and he didn’t allow a single earned run last Monday against the Washington Nationals.

But he did give up four runs in 4.2 innings in the Cubs’ 5-4 loss, and he allowed at least three runs in each of his first three starts this month.

Also, the Cubs have allowed three or more runs in 12 of Stroman’s 16 starts this season, with only one win coming from that bunch. In the four Stroman starts in which they have allowed fewer than three runs, Chicago has posted a 3-1 record.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs Prediction and Picks

Brewers vs. Cubs Prediction: Brewers to win

Brewers vs. Cubs Picks: Brewers ML (Best Value: -115 at Bovada Sportsbook) & Brewers team total over 4.5 runs (Best Value: -110 at Bovada Sportsbook)

When good teams hit a rough spell, that can present spots where you can back them at more favorable odds than you might otherwise get.

Such an opportunity exists here, where Milwaukee is a small favorite but especially small at the spot we listed above.

As noted, Peralta has had a lot of success against the Cubs, and he is 3-1 with a 4.88 ERA in seven appearances (five starts) at Wrigley Field.

Historically, if he gets decent run support, it bodes well for him. And historically he has gotten decent run support more often than not. The Brewers have scored three or more runs in 46 of his 61 career starts, and he is 20-5 in those starts.

Since assuming a permanent role in Milwaukee’s rotation last season, Peralta has been backed with three or more runs 28 times in 38 starts, with the Brewers winning 23 of those 28 games.

With Stroman’s current form in mind, I like the Brewers to improve upon those numbers today.

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