Brewers vs. Giants (7/16): Will Milwaukee have a short memory after massive meltdown?

How will the Milwaukee Brewers respond today after one of the most stunning ninth-inning meltdowns we may see this season?

After an extra-inning win over the Giants in Thursday’s opener in San Francisco, the Brewers were well on their way to back-to-back wins at Oracle Park. They entered the bottom of the ninth with a 5-2 lead and All-Star closer Josh Hader on the mound to close out the game.

Well, he did close out the game, but he didn’t close it out in the way he was meant to. After allowing solo homers to two of the first three batters, Hader loaded the bases with one out by allowing two singles sandwiched around an HBP.

And then, for the second time in as many appearances for Hader, this happened:

Mike Drop pic.twitter.com/SSGMHK7M50

— SFGiants (@SFGiants) July 16, 2022

So, instead of being in position to wrap up a series win today, the Brewers have to bounce back from a tough loss.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Milwaukee Brewers (50-41, 29-22 away, 1st in the NL Central) vs. San Francisco Giants (46-43, 24-22 home, 3rd in the NL West)
• Venue & Location: Oracle Park (San Francisco, California)
• Date: Saturday, July 16, 2022
• Game Time: 7:15 p.m. Eastern Time (4:15 p.m. local time)
• TV Broadcast/Streaming Info: FOX

Brewers vs. Giants Pitching Matchup

• Milwaukee Brewers: Eric Lauer (2022: 16 starts, 6-3, 3.83 ERA)
• San Francisco Giants: Alex Cobb (2022: 13 starts, 3-4, 4.57 ERA)

Brewers vs. Giants Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. Odds from our other top reviewed and recommended legal sports betting sites may also be featured in this article.

Moneyline

• Milwaukee Brewers +112
• San Francisco Giants -132

Over/Under

• Over 8 (-108)
• Under 8 (-112)

Run Line

• Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 (-184)
• San Francisco Giants +1.5 (+150)

Is a Second Straight Over in the Cards in San Francisco?

It may have taken a catastrophic ninth inning for arguably the best closer in the game, but the over did hit last night, for the 22nd time in 46 home games for the Giants and the 24th time in 51 road games for the Brewers.

A second straight over is a strong possibility in today’s matchup, especially with a total that is not particularly high.

Neither of today’s starting pitchers has been outstanding as of late. After tallying six quality starts in his first ten starts, Lauer has just one in his last six.

In those six starts, he is 1-2 with a 6.34 ERA, with 24 runs (23 earned), 33 hits, and 11 walks allowed in 32.2 innings.

Most of Lauer’s away starts this season have not been short on runs on either side. There have been eight or more runs in seven of his nine road starts, and Lauer has contributed to that by allowing four or more runs in five of his away starts.

Away and Home Splits for Eric Lauer & Alex Cobb

• Eric Lauer (away): 9 starts, 3-2, 5.24 ERA, 46.1 IP, 44 H, 30 R (27 ER), 12 HR, 20 BB, 50 K, .250 OBA
• Alex Cobb (home): 8 starts, 2-4, 3.62 ERA, 37.1 IP, 37 H, 22 R (15 ER), 2 HR, 14 BB, 42 K, .252 OBA

Cobb’s last two starts, both against the Arizona Diamondbacks, were quality starts, but he wasn’t outstanding in either, allowing three runs, six hits, and four walks in six innings at home last time out and four runs (three earned), six hits, and a walk in six innings at Chase Field in the outing prior.

For Cobb, there have been eight or more runs in eight of his 13 starts this season, including four of his eight home starts.

Only one of his last five starts has, but Milwaukee (4.52 runs per game, 4.63 runs per game on the road) scores at a higher clip overall than any of those opponents and higher on the road than all but the Mets and Padres of the teams that Cobb has faced at home this season.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants Prediction and Best Bets

Brewers vs. Giants Prediction: Brewers to win

Brewers vs. Giants Best Bets: Brewers ML (+112 at BetOnline), Brewers/Giants over 8 (+105 at Bovada Sportsbook) & Brewers team total over 3.5 runs (-110 at BetMGM)

Milwaukee is good value to bounce back with a win, with the Giants 2-6 in Cobb’s home starts (and 2-5 in his last seven starts overall) and the Brewers 6-3 in Lauer’s away starts.

But that is a secondary bet here, as totals are where your attention should lie for this matchup.

Along with the game total, the team total for the Brewers should also be under consideration.

In Cobb’s 13 starts, the opposition has scored four or more runs nine times, including seven times in his last eight starts. On the other side, the Brewers have scored four or more runs in seven of Lauer’s nine road starts and in 14 of his 16 starts overall this season.

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