Brewers vs Reds Prediction, Best Bets, and Odds (6/2)

The last month has not been very kind to Corbin Burnes and the Milwaukee Brewers, who have lost 18 of their last 29 games, including four of the five games Burnes started in May.

This evening, Burnes and the Brewers (29-27, 13-15 away) will look to get back in the win column as they open a four-game series with the Cincinnati Reds (26-30, 14-14 home) at Great American Ball Park (5:10 pm ET, Apple TV+).

Even with their poor record in May, the Brewers still sit atop the NL Central, though they lead the Pittsburgh Pirates by only a half-game entering today’s MLB action.

While Milwaukee will be looking at this series as an opportunity to get things going in the right direction, this series is an opportunity for Cincinnati to make a move in the division standings, as they are just three games back of the Brew Crew after trimming three games off of the deficit over the last week.

Will the gap be even closer after the series opener in Cincinnati? Read on for our prediction and best bets for today’s Brewers vs Reds game.

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Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Odds

Moneyline

• Milwaukee Brewers -190
• Cincinnati Reds +160

Over/Under

• Over 10 (-110)
• Under 10 (-110)

Run Line

• Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-120)
• Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (+100)

Pitching Matchup for Brewers vs Reds

• Milwaukee Brewers: RHP Corbin Burnes (11 starts, 4-4, 3.68 ERA)
• Cincinnati Reds: LHP Brandon Williamson (3 starts, 0-0, 5.02 ERA)

Will Burnes Blow Through the Reds Again?

Burnes entered this season with a chip on his shoulder after having an arbitration hearing in the offseason. But instead of using that as inspiration for an excellent start, things have been a little too up and down for the 2021 NL Cy Young winner thus far.

In addition to giving up three or more runs in more starts (six) than he has not (five), he has yet to record double-digit strikeouts in any start, and he has pitched seven or more innings only twice. And after compiling a K/BB ratio of 5.6 across 2021 and 2022, his K/BB is only 2.5 (59 K/24 BB) so far this season.

But on a positive note, he is coming into this start off of one of his best starts of the season. Against the San Francisco Giants last Saturday, he allowed just one run and four hits and struck out eight in seven innings.

Unfortunately for him, a lack of run support meant he only ended up with a no-decision in a 3-1 loss.

Will that be an issue again for Burnes? The Brewers have scored only three runs in his last three starts, and they are not good at all against lefties. In 19 games started by LHP this season, Milwaukee is hitting just .208 (.240 in games started by RHP) and averaging just 2.58 runs per game (4.65 in games started by RHP).

There are some encouraging signs for today’s game, however.

The Reds are at their worst at the plate against righties. In 36 games started by RHP, Cincinnati is hitting .234 and averaging four runs and 9.4 strikeouts per game. In 20 games started by LHP, the Reds are hitting .295 and averaging 5.7 runs and 8.8 strikeouts per game.

Also, in five career starts against the Reds, Burnes has a 2.25 ERA and has recorded eight or more strikeouts four times.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction and Best Bets

Prediction for Brewers vs Reds: Brewers to win

Best Bets for Brewers vs Reds: Brewers -1.5 & Corbin Burnes to record 8+ strikeouts

Burnes and the Brewers have not had a lot go their way recently, and their numbers against LHP are a big concern. But I expect him to follow up a strong start against San Francisco with another one against Cincinnati, and I think Milwaukee will eke out enough offense against Williamson to help Burnes get rewarded for his efforts.