Guardians vs Diamondbacks Prediction & Best Bets (6/17)

The first part of this week wasn’t too pleasant for the Arizona Diamondbacks, who saw their hot streak halted by the visiting Philadelphia Phillies. But they started the end of the week well with a win over the Cleveland Guardians last night, behind Zac Gallen’s latest gem.

After the D-backs got the Friday night dub behind a potential NL Cy Young winner, the Guardians will look to have Saturday night success behind their former AL Cy Young winner.

But will Shane Bieber bag a win for Cleveland, or is another fruitless foray into Chase Field ahead? Read on for our prediction and best bets for tonight’s Guardians vs Diamondbacks matchup.

Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks Odds

Moneyline

• Cleveland Guardians -132
• Arizona Diamondbacks +110

Over/Under

• Over 8.5 (-120)
• Under 8.5 (+100)

Run Line

• Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (+120)
• Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 (-140)

Pitching Matchup for Guardians vs Diamondbacks

• Cleveland Guardians: RHP Shane Bieber (14 starts, 5-3, 3.29 ERA)
• Arizona Diamondbacks: LHP Tommy Henry (10 appearances – 9 starts, 3-1, 4.86 ERA)

Can Henry Hang His Hat on More Handy Hitting Help?

Henry went 2-1 with a 2.87 ERA in May, but that hasn’t carried over to June. In his two June starts, the 25-year-old lefty has allowed ten runs, 14 hits (three homers), and four walks in nine innings.

But he was bailed out by excellent run support in both games, a 10-5 win over the Washington Nationals last week and a 9-8 win over the Phillies this past Monday.

Henry has benefitted from quite a bit of that thus far this season, backing him up in his wins and helping him avoid more potential losses. The Diamondbacks have scored five or more runs in all but one of the games he has started, and it should come as no surprise that they are 7-2 in those nine games, including 4-1 at home.

Whether those numbers get added to tonight against the Guardians will depend on which Bieber shows up at Chase Field.

The 2020 AL Cy Young winner has allowed just one run, eight hits, and two walks in 12.2 innings in two June starts, which is a bit more like it from him.

But both of those starts were at Progressive Field, and all of his worst starts this season have come on the road.

Of the five times this season that Bieber has allowed three or more runs, four have come in his eight road starts. Also, of the eight homers that he has allowed this season, seven have been allowed on the road.

Thanks to the combination of his own efforts and a lack of decent run support on a number of occasions, the Guardians are just 2-6 in Bieber’s road starts this season, while they are 4-2 in his six home starts.

Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction and Best Bets

Prediction for Guardians vs Diamondbacks: Diamondbacks to win

Best Bets for Guardians vs Diamondbacks: Diamondbacks ML & Diamondbacks team total over 4 runs

The Guardians have allowed four or more runs 23 times in 36 road games–compared to 18 times in 33 home games–including five times in Bieber’s eight road starts.

If Bieber pitches his best, he can keep Arizona quiet much like Zack Wheeler did earlier this week. But even if he does, I still like the Diamondbacks to do enough at the plate and on the mound to take the win.

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