Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles: Prediction, Odds & Best Bets (7/11)

We’ve got two teams in very opposite situations facing off today in Camden Yards as the Baltimore Orioles host the Chicago Cubs. Now the Cubbies started off decent, but have since fell off this MLB Season. They currently sit in last place of the NL Central, 10 games behind the division leading Brewers. But, on the bright side, they have won 3 straight ball games.

The Orioles are sitting pretty on top of the AL East by 2 games over the Yankees. Plus, the Orioles have actually lost 2 straight, both to the Cubs, so they are primed and ready to bounce back at home today and gain some ground over New York. This might be slightly tough as Chicago is stating their stud lefty, Justin Steele who could close out the series sweep today.

Can he lead the Cubs to this road upset? Or will Baltimore avoid the sweep with a home victory tonight?

Justin Steele Starts for the Cubs Today in Camden Yards

Matchup Information – Cubs vs Orioles

• Venue & Location: Camden Yards (Baltimore, MD)
• Date: Thursday, July 11th, 2024
• First Pitch: 6:35pm Eastern

Pitching Matchup

• Chicago Cubs: Justin Steele (1-3, 2.95 ERA)
• Baltimore Orioles: Albert Suarez (5-2, 2.48 ERA)

Betting Odds

Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.

Run Line

• Cubs +1.5 (-172)
• Orioles -1.5 (+152)

Money Line

• Cubs +124
• Orioles -135

Total

• Over 8.5 (-120)
• Under 8.5 (+100)

Can Orioles Avoid the Home Sweep?

Justin Steele vs Orioles Bats

Justin Steele started the season coming back from injury and had plenty of rough outings, but he has honed it back in since. He is coming off his first win of the season where he pitched all 9 innings, allowing just 1 run on 2 hits and 2 walks. However, this was at home. In his L2 road starts, Steele has allowed 5 runs on 13 hits in 13.1 innings. He allowed 2 home runs and 1 walk as well, but his splits actually slightly improve on the road.

But, he is still facing the Baltimore hitters who love lefties.

As a team, the Orioles hit .255 overall, .257 at Camden Yards this year, and .264 against lefties, which is tied for 5th in the league. The Orioles hit .273 during the month of June and are hitting .254 in July so far, and with the Yankees on their tail, this is certainly a get right game for Baltimore. Adley Rutschman personally sees his average jump from .284 to .389 against LHP and Ryan Mountcastle has his rise from .272 to .313. Jordan Westburg also has his numbers increase from .280 to .325 at Camden Yards.

Point being, the splits really line up for the Orioles in my opinion. But let’s talk about their pitcher.

Albert Suarez vs Cubs Bats

Albert Suarez is starting at home for the Orioles, and he has been rock solid all year long. Suarez is 5-2 with a sub 2.50 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP, and he’s won two straight games. In his last two starts, Suarez has pitched 12 innings, allowing just 2 runs on 7 hits and a walk. Both runs were unfortunately solo home runs. Regardless, since coming out of the bullpen, the Orioles have not lost a game he started at Camden Yards, and I don’t think that begins tonight.

Suarez has a 1.50 ERA at home this year in 30 innings pitched, and a 1.00 WHIP. The Cubs .231 average literally does not move at all in away games, and only drops to .230 against RHP, but being just 19-28 on the road and coming off two straight wins, I lean with the home town team.

The Orioles have been swept twice, both times on the road. On the flip side, the Orioles have avoided a sweep in the final game of a home series on three separate occasions, and I think they could do the same tonight.

Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles Best Bets

Best Bet: Orioles ML (-132) BetOnline

The Orioles are two games ahead of the Yankees in the AL East and they have never lost three games in a row at home this year. Four separate times they have lost two in a row but immediately bounced back to win the next game, and I see the same happening tonight. Suarez’ splits at home are way too good to ignore, and this Orioles team just feasts off of lefties. While these hitters and pitchers haven’t seen each other a ton in their careers, Baltimore’s .786 OPS against LHP is enough for me.

I trust the home team who has lost two straight to turn it around and score some runs tonight.

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