Cubs vs. Phillies (July 23): Will Wheeler, Phillies rebound from Friday fiasco?

The second half of the season could not have gotten off to a worse start for the Philadelphia Phillies, who lost 15-2 at home to the Chicago Cubs last night.

But with ace Zack Wheeler on the mound, the Phils are firm favorites to even up the series in this evening’s matchup at Citizens Bank Park.

The Phillies actually held a lead early last night, and the Cubs didn’t take command until a six-run fifth. The bulk of Chicago’s runs came in the final two innings, when they scored three in the eighth and five in the ninth to put the cherry on top of their second biggest win of the season.

Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Chicago Cubs (36-57, 18-25 away, 4th in the NL Central) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (49-44, 24-22 home, 3rd in the NL East)
• Venue & Location: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)
• Date: Saturday, July 23, 2022
• Game Time: 6:05 p.m. Eastern Time

Cubs vs. Phillies Pitching Matchup

• Chicago Cubs: Marcus Stroman (2022: 11 starts, 2-5, 4.69 ERA)
• Philadelphia Phillies: Zack Wheeler (2022: 17 starts, 8-5, 2.89 ERA)

Cubs vs. Phillies Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. Odds from other top legal and reputable online sports betting sites that we have reviewed and recommend may also appear in this article.

Moneyline

• Chicago Cubs +146
• Philadelphia Phillies -174

Over/Under

• Over 7.5 (-114)
• Under 7.5 (-106)

Run Line

• Chicago Cubs +1.5 (-150)
• Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+125)

How Will Wheeler Respond After All-Star Snub?

There have been some great pitchers in the National League this season, with a number of them coming from the NL East.

Atlanta’s Max Fried and Miami’s Sandy Alcantara, the NL Cy Young Award favorite, both made the NL All-Star team, and the Mets have two standout starters in Max Scherzer–who would have made the team were it not for several weeks on the IL due to an oblique strain–and Taijuan Walker.

But only so many pitchers can make the team, and with every team needing to have at least one All-Star Game representative, Luis Castillo of the Reds got in while the likes of Scherzer, Walker, and Wheeler did not.

Wheeler was perhaps done in by starting the season 0-3 with an 8.53 ERA in his first three starts. But since then, he is 8-2 with a 2.05 ERA in 14 starts.

Those numbers would look even better had he not allowed six runs in 4.2 innings against the Toronto Blue Jays in his most recent start, a loss ten days ago.

The odds are favorable that Wheeler will bounce back with a strong start against the Cubs.

Splits for Zack Wheeler

• Last seven home starts: 5-1, 0.97 ERA, 46 IP, 28 H, 5 R (5 ER), 8 BB, 53 K
• vs. NL Central teams in 2022 (three starts): 2-1, 1.90 ERA, 19 IP, 16 H, 4 R (4 ER), 2 BB, 15 K

Of those last seven home starts, Wheeler has allowed no runs in five of them. On the road this season, he has had just one scoreless outing, which came against the St. Louis Cardinals earlier this month.

Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Best Bets

Cubs vs. Phillies Prediction: Phillies to win

Cubs vs. Phillies Best Bets: Phillies -1.5 (+130 at BetUS) & Cubs team total under 3 runs (+104 at BetOnline)

Last night was pretty ugly for Philadelphia, but there will not be a repeat of that in today’s matchup against Chicago.

The Phillies have not exactly been tearing the cover off of the ball recently. In their last ten games, they have scored more than four runs only once, a 10-0 win over the Marlins last Saturday.

But with Wheeler on the mound, they won’t need a big day with their bats to do enough to cover the run line.

If you want a little extra cushion with the team total under, the under 3.5 is available at the likes of Bovada Sportsbook, BetUS, and others. But I don’t see the Cubs pushing across three runs today against Wheeler, so I feel comfortable and confident with the number as it is.