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Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins: Prediction & Best Bet (June 17)
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Detroit Tigers Odds
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Minnesota Twins Odds
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See Picks & Statistics For The GameWe’ve got an early AL Central Showdown in Minnesota on Saturday afternoon. The Tigers take on the Twins and we’ve got our prediction and best bet for the game!
Being in the same division, these teams are historically familiar with each other, but this is just their first series matchup this season. The Tigers won the first game Thursday night by a score of 8-4, and took game 2 last night 7-1.
The Twins are on top of the division, but they are only 35-35. Detroit sits in 4th place at 29-39, but they have recently gone on a horrible slump.
The Tigers are 3-2 in their L5 games, but prior to that they went on a 9 game losing streak. They will look to turn it around against the Twins.
Let’s breakdown the matchup!
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Tigers vs Twins Matchup Preview
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Target Field (Minneapolis, MN)
- Date: Saturday, June 17th, 2023
- First Pitch: 2:10pm Eastern
- Broadcast: BSN
Pitching Matchup
- Detroit Tigers: Joey Wentz (1-6, 7.23 ERA)
- Minnesota Twins: José De León (0-1, 3.86 ERA)
Betting Odds
Runline
- Tigers +1.5 (-130)
- Twins -1.5 (+110)
Moneyline
- Tigers +155
- Twins -180
Total
- Over 9 (-105)
- Under 9 (-115)
Tigers vs Twins Prediction & Best Bet
My gut leans with the Twins in this one, and I think we see some runs.
Joey Wentz just doesn’t have it this year. He’s only made it 6 innings once in 12 starts. He’s given up at least 1 run in every game, and he’s given up 5+ Earned Runs 6 times. Wentz has also walked at least one batter in all but one start.
Being on the road doesn’t help much either. In Washington earlier this year, Wentz only made it through 2 innings before giving up 10 hits and 6 ER including 2 Home Runs. Ironically, this was the game he didn’t walk a batter.
Bottomline, I like the 1st place Twins to tear up Wentz early.
Here’s where my heads at betting this one.
Minnesota Twins F5 -1 (-105)
We are heavily banking on the Twins to light up Wentz early. Personally, I think the Twins get to him so bad that he doesn’t even make it through 5 innings.
Especially coming off a big loss like last night, I think the Twins set the tone early in this matinee game.
Minnesota is far and away the better team, especially on the pitching side.
The Twins rank 2nd and 3rd in Hits Allowed and Runs Allowed. They also rank 3rd in team ERA, 1st in WHIP, and 2nd in K/9. Detroit ranks in the bottom 10 in all of those categories except WHIP.
I’m simply backing the better team at home against a pitcher who could give up 5 runs in the first few innings.
Player Prop
Carlos Correa over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Correa only clears this line in 44% of games this year, but that number jumps to 56% when at home. He’s seeing the ball very well recently.
In his L10 games, he’s cleared this in 7/10 games, including 5 straight! Not to mention in his L5 games, he totals 17 bases! He is 6/23 in his L5, but all 6 hits have been for extra bases.
Joey Wentz does not like pitching to right-handed batters. Correa already batts .233 against LHP, up from his average of .215. Wentz on the other hand allows righties to hit .314, compared to .241 against left-handed hitters.
I think this spot is fantastic for Correa against Wentz, and I think he helps contribute to a Twins victory.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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