Marlins vs. Braves (September 4): Atlanta seeks rivalry sweep before key cross-country trek

Can Max Fried make the most of his Braves teammates getting the best of NL Cy Young Award favorite Sandy Alcantara on Friday night? He’ll get an opportunity to improve his Cy Young hopes this afternoon as Atlanta goes for the sweep of the Miami Marlins at Truist Park.

Alcantara gave up three homers and six runs in five innings on Friday, with the homer-happy Braves hitting five long balls in total in their 8-1 win.

Fried, who has odds of +1100 at BetOnline, can close the gap at least a little bit if he can bounce back well from a disappointing showing against the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday.

More important for Atlanta, however, is their ongoing quest for a fifth straight NL East title.

With their walk-off win last night, coupled with the Mets’ home loss to the Washington Nationals, the Braves are now within two in the division with one home game remaining before a road trip that will see them take on the A’s, Mariners, and Giants.

Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Miami Marlins (55-77, 29-39 away, 4th in the NL East) vs. Atlanta Braves (83-51, 46-25 home, 2nd in the NL East)
• Venue & Location: Truist Park (Atlanta, Georgia)
• Date: Sunday, September 4, 2022
• Game Time: 1:35 p.m. Eastern Time

Marlins vs. Braves Pitching Matchup

• Miami: Pablo Lopez (2022: 26 starts, 8-8, 3.64 ERA)
• Atlanta: Max Fried (2022: 25 starts, 12-5, 2.56 ERA)

Marlins vs. Braves Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. This article may also include odds from other legal, reputable sports betting sites that we have reviewed.

Moneyline

• Miami Marlins +215
• Atlanta Braves -260

Over/Under

• Over 7 (-120)
• Under 7 (-102)

Run Line

• Miami Marlins +1.5 (+100)
• Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-120)

Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction and Best Bets

Marlins vs. Braves Prediction: Atlanta to win

Marlins vs. Braves Best Bets: Atlanta -1.5 (Best Value: -114 at BetUS) & Miami team total under (Best Value: -105 at BetOnline)

Lopez is 3-6 with a 5.46 ERA in 13 career starts against Atlanta, and in six starts at Truist Park, he is 1-4 with a 9.86 ERA. In 21 innings, he has allowed 28 hits, 24 runs (23 earned), six homers, and 10 walks.

His daytime numbers this season aren’t great either, as he is 0-4 with a 6.05 ERA in eight starts. Nor are his career numbers against teams who are .500 or better, as he is 12-21 with a 4.72 ERA in 54 starts (14-8, 2.78 ERA in 34 starts vs. teams under .500).

Fried is 6-2 with a 2.12 ERA in his last 13 home starts, in which the Braves have a 10-3 record. Also, Fried has allowed two or fewer runs 16 times this season, including 11 times in 15 home starts.

So, another long, fruitless day at the plate is likely for the Marlins, who have not scored more than two runs in any of their last seven games and have been held to two or fewer runs 18 times in their last 30 games.

The Marlins lead the league in one-run losses with 29, but 19 of their 29 losses since the All-Star break (65.5 percent) have been by 2+ runs, including seven of their 13 road losses.

Also, of the 17 wins that the Braves have in Fried’s starts this season, 12 (70.6 percent) have come by 2+ runs.

Miami did a great job of staying close all game long last night, but the percentages and odds are against them doing so again today.

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