Marlins vs. Mets (September 28): Will New York show its trademark resilience in must-win game?

No MLB team this season has been better at bouncing back from losses than the New York Mets. That has helped position them for their first NL West title since 2015, and after a loss last night to the Miami Marlins, that resilience will need to show itself in an important game tonight.

Next week, New York might be rooting for Miami, as the Marlins host the Braves to close out the regular season. Tonight, their focus will be on beating them to at least enter this weekend’s massive matchup in Atlanta no worse than tied for first, following last night’s 6-4 loss to the Marlins.

It was a bad time for Carlos Carrasco to have one of his shortest starts of the season, as he exited after only three innings with four runs and six hits allowed and the Mets trailing 4-0.

MLB RBI leader Pete Alonso cranked a three-run homer, his 40th of the season, in the bottom of the fourth to make it a one-run game, but the Mets were unable to come all the way back, as Miami’s bullpen backed up six solid innings by Pablo Lopez to close out the win.

PETE ALONSO'S 40TH HOME RUN MAKES IT A ONE-RUN GAME!!! pic.twitter.com/eIfoLochn4

— SNY (@SNYtv) September 28, 2022

But at a league-best 41-16 (.719) following a loss this season, the Mets are unlikely to be too consumed by last night’s loss, with their destiny still very much in their hands.

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Miami Marlins (64-90, 32-44 away, 4th in the NL East) vs. New York Mets (97-58, 50-27 home, tied for 1st in the NL East)
• Venue & Location: Citi Field (New York, New York)
• Date: Wednesday, September 28, 2022
• Game Time: 7:10 p.m. Eastern Tim

Marlins vs. Mets Pitching Matchup

• Miami: LHP Jesus Luzardo (2022: 16 starts, 3-7, 3.57 ERA)
• New York: RHP Taijuan Walker (2022: 27 starts, 12-5, 3.53 ERA)

Mets vs. Marlins Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. Odds from our other recommended legal sportsbooks may also be used in this article.

Moneyline

• Miami Marlins +160
• New York Mets -190

Over/Under

• Over 7 (-102)
• Under 7 (-120)

Run Line

• Miami Marlins +1.5 (-134)
• New York Mets -1.5 (+112)

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Prediction and Best Bets

Marlins vs. Mets Prediction: Mets to win

Marlins vs. Mets Best Bets: Mets -1.5 (Best Value: +120 at BetMGM)

Luzardo’s record may not look too pretty, but he has pitched well in many of his starts. In his 16 starts, he has allowed two or fewer runs 11 times and has nine quality starts.

He has pitched especially well on the road, allowing more than two runs only once and posting a 2.60 ERA in nine starts.

Since allowing four runs in 2.2 innings at Arizona on May 10 and then going on the shelf for almost three months with a left forearm strain, Luzardo has a 1.89 ERA in five road starts. In all five starts, he has gone at least six innings, and he has allowed just seven runs and just 17 innings in 33.1 innings.

It’s also worth noting that batting splits are unfavorable across the board for the Mets.

Batting Splits for the New York Mets

• Batting average vs. LHP: .247
• BA vs. RHP: .263
• Batting average at home: .251
• BA on the road: .265
• Batting average in night games: .257
• BA in day games: .261
• Batting average in games started by LHP (53 games): .254
• BA in games started by RHP (102 games): .261
• Runs per game in games started by LHP: 4.53
• Runs per game in games started by RHP: 4.89

So, the Mets will face a real challenge to continue their success in this scenario.

But they are the only team in the league with a win percentage above .700 following a loss, and of their 41 wins following a loss, 32 (78 percent) have come by 2+ runs.

And while Luzardo has been outstanding on the road, Walker has fared very well against the Marlins this season. He has made more starts against Miami than any other team this season, and in his five starts against them, he is 4-0 with a 2.23 ERA and four quality starts.

There is a lot of value in backing Luzardo and the Marlins to upset the odds again, and it is tempting. But in the end, I’m siding with the better team and the team that has shown its resilience time and time again in spots like these this season.

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