Marlins vs. Phillies (September 8): Can Cy Young-chasing Alcantara ace his most important test of the season?

Today stands to be a very pivotal day in the NL Cy Young Award race, as favorite Sandy Alcantara will be on the mound tonight in Philadelphia as the Marlins take on the Phillies.

As has been the case for months now, Alcantara remains atop the NL Cy Young odds. And as a -300 favorite (at BetOnline), he is in a strong position to become the first Marlins pitcher to win the award.

But behind him are three strong contenders in Dodgers hurler Julio Urias, Braves ace Max Fried, and Zac Gallen of the Arizona Diamondbacks, who has leapt into contention in recent weeks with a scoreless streak that is already the eighth-longest in MLB history.

All of the contenders will be on the mound over the next few days, with Urias (at San Diego) and Fried (at Seattle) scheduled to pitch Saturday and Gallen on Sunday (at Colorado).

Alcantara will get the chance to lay down a marker tonight, but another subpar outing could see the race tighten up significantly in the coming days.

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
• Venue & Location: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)
• Date: Thursday, September 8, 2022
• Game Time: 6:45 p.m. Eastern Time

Marlins vs. Phillies Pitching Matchup

• Miami: Sandy Alcantara
• Philadelphia: Kyle Gibson

Marlins vs. Phillies Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. Odds from other legal sportsbooks may also appear in this article.

Moneyline

• Miami Marlins +112
• Philadelphia Phillies -132

Over/Under

• Over 7 (-115)
• Under 7 (-105)

Run Line

• Miami Marlins +1.5 (-196)
• Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+162)

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Best Bets

Marlins vs. Phillies Prediction: Miami to win

Marlins vs. Phillies Best Bet: Miami ML (Best Value: +117 at BetUS)

Alcantara may have caught a rather fortunate break without being on the mound last Sunday, as the series finale of the Marlins vs. Braves series was interrupted after four and a half by a weather delay of one hour, 51 minutes.

Fried had pitched five no-hit innings at the time of the delay, and he did not return after the game resumed. Were it not for the weather, Fried could have significantly dented Alcantara’s advantage at the top.

But for now, Alcantara is still in the driver’s seat, though that won’t remain the case if he has another subpar performance tonight.

Last Friday at Truist Park, Alcantara allowed six runs, six hits, and a walk in his six innings. All six of the runs he allowed–and all eight of Atlanta’s runs–were via the home run, as the Braves hit three two-run shots off him and two more solo shots after his exit.

It was the fourth time in seven starts that Alcantara allowed four or more runs, and while the Braves, Dodgers, Phillies, and Mets are four of the best teams in the league, he allowed four or more runs only twice in his first 20 starts of the season.

Against the Phillies this season, Alcantara is 1-2 with a 3.03 ERA in four starts. Three of the four starts were quality starts, though his most recent one, on August 10 in Philadelphia, was not thanks to things coming undone for him in a decisive eighth inning (7.2 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 4 ER, BB, 4 K).

But the righty, whose 27th birthday was just yesterday, has done very well with bouncing back from such performances.

Starts for Sandy Alcantara After Allowing Four or More Runs in Previous Start

• San Diego Padres (away – 5/6): 4.2 IP, 5 H, 3 R (2 ER), 2 BB, 5 K (loss)
• St. Louis Cardinals (home – 6/29): 9 IP, 7 H, 3 R (2 ER), 2 BB, 3 K (complete game & win)
• Cincinnati Reds (home – 8/3): 9 IP, 6 H, 0 R, BB, 3 K (CG & win)
• San Diego Padres (home – 8/15): 7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 7 K (W)
• Dodgers: 9 IP (home – 8/27), 6 H, R (ER), 2 BB, 10 K (CG & win)

Alcantara bounced back from that start in Philadelphia by tossing seven shutout innings against the San Diego Padres, and he has allowed just five runs in 38.2 innings in five starts after allowing four or more runs in his previous start.

Three of his league-leading four complete games have come in such starts, so he has some prodigious standards to live up to tonight.

Fortunately for his Cy Young hopes, I expect him to do just that.

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