Marlins vs. Phillies (August 11): Phils look to fight off Fish to finish sweep

Can anyone stop the Philadelphia Phillies right now? The Miami Marlins had a chance to last night, but instead, they are staring at the wrong end of a potential sweep this afternoon at Citizens Bank Park.

In last night’s game, Miami took a lead in the second inning, and with six outs to get and a 3-1 lead, they had the home team on the ropes with NL Cy Young favorite Sandy Alcantara pitching his latest gem.

But Alcantara stayed in perhaps a bit too long and got himself into a jam he couldn’t get out of in the bottom of the eighth. RBI singles by Brandon Marsh, Kyle Schwarber, and J.T. Realmuto put the Phillies ahead, and Seranthony Dominguez closed out the Phillies’ seventh straight win in the ninth.

Today, the Phillies will look to pick up their 13th win in 14 games and head into a crucial road series against the New York Mets with their win streak intact. But they may have their hands full with Marlins pitcher Edward Cabrera, who made his return from the injured list last week with an outstanding outing.

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Miami Marlins (49-61, 26-33 away, 4th in the NL East) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (62-48, 32-25 home, 3rd in the NL East)
• Venue & Location: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)
• Date: Thursday, August 11, 2022
• Game Time: 1:05 p.m. Eastern Time
• Marlins vs. Phillies TV Info: ESPN+ (subscription service)

Marlins vs. Phillies Pitching Matchup

• Miami Marlins: Edward Cabrera (2022: 4 starts, 2-1, 2.61 ERA)
• Philadelphia Phillies: Kyle Gibson (2022: 21 starts, 7-4, 4.36 ERA)

Marlins vs. Phillies Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. This article may also mention odds from other top legal sports betting sites that we recommend and have reviewed.

Moneyline

• Miami Marlins +144
• Philadelphia Phillies -172

Over/Under

• Over 8 (-120)
• Under 8 (-102)

Run Line

• Miami Marlins +1.5 (-140)
• Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+116)

Can Cabrera Shut Down the Phillies?

Last night was the latest rough night in an extended run of rough days and nights for the Marlins.

A month ago, Miami was in the mix in the NL wild-card race, but those hopes have all but evaporated at this point as they have lost 16 of their last 22 games.

Last night’s loss was their ninth in their last 11 games, and it featured yet another underwhelming performance at the plate. Miami has not scored more than three runs in any of their last ten games, and in that stretch, they have managed just 16 runs. Sixteen.

But they haven’t been blown away much thanks to their pitching. In their last ten games, they have allowed more than four runs only once, a 9-3 loss to the Mets on July 31.

With Cabrera on the bump, there should be confidence that at least the good pitching will continue.

The 24-year-old was on the IL for over a month and a half due to his elbow, and he marked his return last Friday by allowing no runs, no hits, and three walks and striking out eight in five innings against the Chicago Cubs.

The sample size with Cabrera is small, but his only bad start was prior to being shelved. His other three starts have been excellent, and he has the goods to keep the Phillies on their toes this afternoon.

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Picks

Marlins vs. Phillies Prediction: Marlins to win

Marlins vs. Phillies Picks: Marlins ML (Best Value: +145 at BetUS) & +1.5 (Best Value: -140 at BetOnline) + Marlins/Phillies under 8 (Best Value: +100 at Bovada Sportsbook)

I was initially compelled to back the over in this one, given relevant recent trends with Gibson’s starts. There have been eight or more combined runs in six of his last eight home starts and five of his last seven starts overall.

But the Marlins’ last eight games have all featured fewer than eight combined runs, and that is the most likely over/under outcome for today’s matchup.

All three of Gibson’s starts against the Marlins this season–he is 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA in those starts–have featured fewer than eight runs, and seven of the 12 head-to-head matchups between these two teams this season have as well.

And why am I picking the Marlins to win? Based on the matchup, you would think that the Phillies would be much more heavily favored.

But whether it is at this number or a longer number, the visitors are good value as a road dog. I like what I have seen from Cabrera, and the Marlins, while not a great team by any stretch, have yet to be swept on the road in a three or four-game series this season.

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• Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Stats & Trends (8/11)