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Mets vs Braves, Odds & Picks: Atlanta Hitters Light Up Truist
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
mlb
New York Mets Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1.5
-110
10
-110u
+195
Atlanta Braves Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-1.5
-110
10
-110o
-208
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See Picks & Statistics For The GameThe Mets are down in Atlanta taking on the MLB leading Braves for the first of a three game series.
This is the season finale between these NL East rivals, and the Mets probably want to forget all the games against the Braves this season.
Let’s just cut to the chase. In 10 games this year, the Braves lead the season series 8-2. And they’ve done so in dominant fashion.
They are outscoring the Mets 82-42 over the course of the season. Now, this does include the time the Braves routed New York 21-3, in what more resembled the Falcons playing the Jets.
The Mets are playing for pride as the Braves have the division more than wrapped up, leading the Phillies by 13.5 games.
The Braves are looking to hold off the Dodgers and maintain the Number 1 Overall seed in the National League.
Let’s breakdown tonight’s matchup!
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Mets vs Braves Game Information
The Braves are throwing out Allan Winans who actually got his first win in the Braves 21-3 victory against New York on August 12th.
Winans pitched 7 shutout innings, allowing just 4 hits and striking out 9 batters.
That game took place in Citi Field, and tonight he makes his first start in Atlanta.
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Truist Park (Atlanta, GA)
- Date: Mondau, August, 21th, 2023
- First Pitch: 7:20pm Eastern
- Broadcast: BSSO
Pitching Matchup
- New York Mets: David Peterson (3-7, 5.45 ERA)
- Atlanta Braves: Allan Winans (1-0, 1.59 ERA)
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of Bovada.
Runline
- Mets +1.5 (-110)
- Braves -1.5 (+110)
Moneyline
- Mets +180
- Braves -220
Total
- Over 10.5 (-105)
- Under 10.5 (-115)
Braves Hit Bombs at Home
The title right there says it all.
The Braves have hit 123 home runs in just 63 home games. They lead the league in HR, with the 2nd place Dodgers trailing by 41 dingers.
Atlanta’s bats are incredible, and I see no reason why they won’t go off again tonight.
David Peterson pitched once against the Braves in late April and didn’t last long. He went 5 innings before allowing 4 ER on 5 hits including a home run.
Peterson struck out 6 batters, but ended up with the loss as Atlanta won 4-0.
It’s worth noting, there are a couple of Braves hitter that have never gotten a hit off of this Mets pitcher.
- Marcell Ozuna 0/12
- Travis d’Arnaud 0/10
Now, I’ve got two props, and they are two of the chalkiest on the board.
Call me a square. Fade me if you feel.
But based on the data, I like these guys to simply do their jobs tonight.
Player Props
Austin Riley over 1.5 Bases (+106) Bovada
Riley has some great history against Peterson.
He is 8/18 batting .444 with 2 walks. He has 5 singles, 3 2B and 2 RBIs in his career against this guy.
Riley struggles a little against lefties, but Peterson has a pBA of .296 against RHP.
He’s cleared 2+ Bases in 54% of home games this year and 63% of his L30. Plus he has 11 HR over his last 30 contests.
Against New York this year, Riley has cleared in 6/10 games, and totals 27 bases. He has 3 HR and 3 2B against the Mets this season.
Riley has 2+ bases in all 3 home games against New York, totaling a double and home run and 12 bases in Truist Park.
We’re trusting a solid ball player to get his job done tonight.
Matt Olson over 1.5 Bases (+112) BetOnline
It’s Matt Olson. Sell job over.
He bats .273 against Peterson in 11 at bats. Only 3 hits, but guess what?
All of them have been home runs. He totals 8 RBIs against Peterson.
Olson bats .259 against LHP this year, but Peterson’s pBA to lefty hitters is .304.
He’s allowed 5 of 11 home runs to LHB, despite seeing right handed batters 68% of the time.
Olson has only cleared 2+ Bases in 3/10 games against New York, but he has a hit in 9 of those 10, and he still averages 2.5 bases per game against the Mets.
This is thanks to games with 4, 5, and 10 total bases.
In his L3 against the Mets, Olson totals 16 bases with 3 HR and a 2B.
What more do you need for plus money?
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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