Mets vs Guardians MLB Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (5/21): Will New York Even the Series?

Mets vs Guardians MLB Betting Trends

• The Mets are 4-10 straight up in their last 14 games vs. the AL Central.
• Cleveland is 5-0 straight up in its last five home games.
• The total hit the Over in six of the Mets’ last seven road games.
• The total hit the Under in four of Cleveland’s last five games.
• The total hit the Over in nine of the last 12 Mets-Guardians matchups at Progressive Field.

Mets vs Guardians Predictions & MLB Picks Today (5/21)

After losing the series-opening contest, the Mets will look to even things up this evening. The 2024 season hasn’t gone all that well for Carlos Mendoza’s club and things have only gotten worse as yesterday’s loss marked New York’s eighth defeat in the last 11 games.

Adding insult to injury is the fact that the Mets are also 5-10 SU in their last 15 road matchups.

The same can’t be said for the Guardians, who are heading in the opposite direction. Cleveland has been on fire, winning four straight outings ahead of tonight’s tilt while outscoring those opponents 22-9 on aggregate with all but one win coming by multiple runs.

Furthermore, the Guardians are on a five-game winning streak at Progressive Field, beating those opponents by an average of 2.8 runs per game.

The Guardians have been racking up wins left and right at Progressive Field lately.

Interestingly enough, yesterday’s victory ended a seven-game losing streak for the Guardians against the Mets. Nevertheless, New York is 4-3 SU in the last seven instances where it was the home club when facing New York.

If the Guardians want to keep their winning streak going, they must defeat Mets SP Adrian Houser. On one hand, the 31-year-old veteran has been putrid as a starter this season, going 0-3 with an 8.16 ERA in six starts. On the other hand, Houser has pitched well since being moved to the bullpen, allowing three runs on four hits with a strikeout across a quarter of innings.

Meanwhile, Cleveland wouldn’t mind if Carlos Carrasco turned back the clock. The Venezuelan righty has played to a 2-4 record with a 5.16 ERA in nine starts, however, he’s allowed exactly one run in two of his three appearances at Progressive Field thus far.

The Guardians need Carlos Carrasco to keep up his stellar home play if they’re going to beat the Mets again today. 

After yesterday’s strong effort, let’s back the Guardians to win again today. The Mets have struggled to produce results on the road and their chances of winning tend to drop whenever Houser takes the mound. If Cleveland can get another early lead, I see the home crowd leaving Progressive Field with smiles.

I’m also backing the Guardians on the moneyline. Not only because they’re the better team, but because the Mets are only 17-19 SU against righties this season, whereas the Guardians are 24-15 in that regard. Considering how New York owns the second-worst winning percentage in inter-league games this season (30.0%), backing Cleveland has never made more sense.

Mets vs Guardians MLB Prediction: CLE wins

Best Mets vs Guardians Bet: CLE ML (-125)

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Best Mets vs Guardians MLB Player Prop (5/21)

Although I have my eye on a few Mets vs. Guardians props, I’m going to go with Pete Alonso to record over 1.5 total bases (+112) today.

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Even if I’m taking the Guardians to win, I can’t ignore the Mets slugger’s hot streak. Alonso is slashing .314/.352/.549 across 54 plate appearances in his last 12 games, racking up 16 hits, six doubles, and two home runs along the way. Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that he finished with the Over on this prop nine times during that stretch — a 75.0% success rate.