Twins vs Guardians Prediction and Best Bets (9/4): Can Cleveland Close the Gap in the AL Central?

If the AL Central is going to be among the exciting MLB division races over the final weeks of the regular season, the Cleveland Guardians need to get the best of the Minnesota Twins in the big four-game series that begins today (6:10 pm ET, Bally Sports Great Lakes & Bally Sports North).

Entering this series, the Twins (71-66, 31-37 away) hold a five-game lead over the Guardians (66-71, 35-34 home). That is not an insurmountable margin with 25 games left, but if Cleveland can’t make the most of this opportunity to close the gap, it’s unlikely that they will be able to the rest of the way.

In this evening’s opener, Pablo Lopez will be on the mound for Minnesota, while Lucas Giolito will make his first start for the Guardians after the end of his short stint with the Los Angeles Angels.

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Odds

Odds are via Bovada.

Moneyline

• Minnesota Twins -133
• Cleveland Guardians +111

Over/Under

• Over 8 (-105)
• Under 8 (-115)

Run Line

• Minnesota Twins -1.5 (+125)
• Cleveland Guardians +1.5 (-145)

Pitching Matchup for Twins vs Guardians

• Minnesota Twins: RHP Pablo Lopez (27 starts, 9-7, 3.72 ERA)
• Cleveland Guardians: RHP Lucas Giolito (27 starts, 7-11, 4.45 ERA)

Will the Third Home Be the Charm for Giolito?

Entering this season, Giolito wasn’t considered one of the top AL Cy Young Award candidates. But he was looked at as being someone who potentially work his way into contention.

Instead, it has been a forgettable season for the 29-year-old. In his final campaign with the White Sox, he had a number of solid starts, posting a respectable 3.79 ERA in 21 starts.

But he left Chicago in late July with the White Sox mired in a miserable season, and his time with the Angels proved to be a major disappointment, as he went 1-5 with a 6.89 ERA in six starts.

After being waived by the Angels last Tuesday, Giolito quickly returned to the AL Central. On Thursday, the Guardians claimed him to aid in their late push.

It’s only fitting then that his first start with his new team is against a familiar foe. In fact, Giolito has more starts against the Twins (23) than he does against any other team.

In those 23 starts, he is 8-9 with a 3.73 ERA. This season, he is 0-1 with a 1.00 ERA in three starts against Minnesota, with two runs, 13 hits, eight walks, and 23 strikeouts in 18 innings.

His final start with the White Sox was at Minnesota on July 23, and he tossed five shutout innings, allowed six hits and three walks, and struck out nine. But Chicago’s bullpen blew a 3-0 lead in the ninth, as the Twins rallied for a 5-4, 12-inning win.

Lucas Giolito vs Minnesota This Season (All with the Chicago White Sox)

• April 12 (away): 6 IP, 5 H, R (ER), 2 BB, 7 K
• May 4 (home): 7 IP, 2 H, R (ER), 3 BB, 7 K
• July 23 (away): 5 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 9 K

However, while misfortune was a hallmark of his time with the White Sox this season, he wasn’t particularly effective in his short stint with the Angels. He allowed four or more runs in four of his six starts, which he did only six times in his 21 starts with Chicago.

The Chicago version of Giolito needs to be on the mound for the Guardians to have a chance tonight, especially with Lopez toeing the rubber for the Twins.

Lopez lost to Cleveland at home in his most recent start last Monday, and he has allowed nine runs and 16 hits in 11.2 innings in two starts against the Guardians this season.

However, he has been at his best on the road. In 14 starts, he has a 2.87 ERA, compared to a 4.61 ERA in 13 home starts. And after losses in six of Lopez’s first eight road starts this season, the Twins are 5-1 in his last six road starts.

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction and Best Bets

Prediction: Twins to win

Best Bets: Twins ML (-133 at Bovada) & Twins/Guardians under 8 (-115 at Bovada)

This will be the 10th game between these two teams this season. In the first nine, eight or fewer runs have been scored in all but one game.

I think the under is the move because Giolito will look more like his best self against a team he knows very well, but I’m also still rolling with the Twins to get the win.

Where to Bet on Twins vs Guardians and MLB in 2023

Many top online sportsbooks offer a wide variety of MLB odds throughout the season.

In addition to being able to make daily MLB picks on games from Opening Day until the final game of the Fall Classic, you can also bet on the other major awards (MLB MVP, Cy Young Award, and MLB Rookie of the Year) and World Series odds.

• BetOnline
• BetUS
• Bookmaker
• MyBookie
• Sportsbetting.ag

Along with Bovada, where the Twins vs Guardians odds in this article came from, there are plenty of sports betting sites you can choose from that are good for MLB betting. The above books are some of the others that we highly recommend.

If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds.