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MLB Must Bet Prop: Divisional Round | October 5, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Saturday!
The second round of the MLB playoffs starts today, and there’s plenty of value to be found as teams and players step up under pressure. With so many matchups to dissect, one play stands out as a great opportunity for bettors looking to capitalize on key trends. Let’s break down today’s top pick and why it could bring big returns.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Saturday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Thursday’s write up went 0-1
2024 MLB Season: +13.92 Units
Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-132)
Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
Can Zack Wheeler shut down the Mets in Game 1?
Keeping it light today, there’s so much to figure out about these teams and players as we head into the second round of the playoffs. One play stood out above the rest: Zack Wheeler over 6.5 strikeouts against the so-called “Team of Destiny,” the New York Mets. The term “Team of Destiny” is getting thrown around all willy-nilly these days—even the Tigers have been dubbed with that nickname. So, who’s the real “Team of Destiny”?
I digress… Let’s dive into the play.
Wheeler enters today with elite ratings on both the current season and default metrics at Batters-Box.com. He holds the highest-rated average hitter matchup strikeout percentage for this season. When he faces an elite strikeout matchup, Wheeler goes over 6.5 strikeouts 70% of the time. Even with just an elite rating, he records six strikeouts 90% of the time and seven strikeouts 60% of the time. Over his last 10 games, the 10-year veteran has cleared this prop in seven of them.
Set the Wheels in motion#RedOctober pic.twitter.com/NUqq39fhve
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) October 4, 2024
Today, he faces a New York lineup that features zero elite hitters in both ratings. In fact, the current season ratings show the Mets have three poorly rated hitters and nine hitters with strikeout rates above the league average.
On September 22nd, Wheeler faced this Mets team, going 7.0 innings with eight strikeouts, allowing two runs on two hits. In 171 combined plate appearances against Wheeler, the Mets are batting .281 with a .730 OPS.
If the Mets truly are the “Team of Destiny,” they will need to get past a guy who’s been sporting a sub-1.00 WHIP all season long. I think the prop has great value if you want to alt it down to six and pair it with another play. I don’t hate that idea—the trends say six is the magic number, just need that extra backwards “K.”
Give me Wheeler to wheel and deal this afternoon.
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a play is worth my time or not.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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