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MLB Must Bet Prop: First Five | October 7, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 3 minutes
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Happy Monday!
A new week is here, and we’re ready to keep the good vibes and solid plays rolling on the diamond! Today, one prop in the Royals vs. Yankees game really caught my eye. Of course, it’s a first five play—our bread and butter this season! Nothing really popped in the Tigers vs. Guardians matchup, so we’ll keep it to just one play and a little sprinkle for some added excitement later tonight.
Let’s dive in!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Monday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Sunday’s write up went 0-2
2024 MLB Season: +15.92 Units
Royals F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-115)
Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
Bobby Witt pointing to the crowd after hitting a ball into orbit
It’s pure insanity to see this prop priced so close to even money, especially with so many factors pointing to an over. Let’s break down why this prop is so enticing.
On the mound for the New York Yankees today is left-hander Carlos Rodón, who has been one of the most inconsistent pitchers in their rotation. With a sub-4 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP, he has allowed 2 or more runs in 21 of his 32 starts this season. Today, he holds the worst pitcher rating among the four starters, according to Batters-Box.com. He’s giving up the most hard contact and has the lowest ground ball rate.
The Royals’ offense, on the other hand, features two elite hitters, four batters above the league strikeout rate, and two hitters above the league ground ball rate. They’ve been consistently averaging 2.38 runs in the first five innings, though they’re a bit lower on the road at 2.21 runs. However, given Rodón’s struggles this season, this is a prime opportunity for the Royals to capitalize. A low ground ball rate combined with high hard contact is a dangerous mix for any opposing team.
As a die-hard Yankees fan, it’s tough to take this prop, but winning is the goal. I’m going with the Royals’ First Five Team Total Over 1.5 Runs.
Sprinkle of the Day: Salvador Perez Home Run (+350)
- Elite Rating on Batters-Box.com’s Current Season Ratings
- Vs Left handed pitchers this season battings .297 with OPS of .852
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a play is worth my time or not.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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