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MLB Must Bet Prop: First Five Team Total | September 29, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 3 minutes
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Happy Sunday!
The Must Bet Props are back!
The Cardinals’ hot bats are set to take on a struggling Giants pitcher, Brayden Birdsong, in what feels like a perfect spot to keep the runs coming. Birdsong has been getting hit hard all season, while St. Louis has been jumping on teams early. With the season winding down, this L
Let’s dive into it!
#NFL Scribbles ✍?
Steelers vs Colts —> https://t.co/dyEnVRpIkU pic.twitter.com/uH9hutqgSU
— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) September 29, 2024
Top MLB Prop Bets for Sunday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Yesterday’s write up went 1-0
Cardinals F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-140)
Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
Nolan Arenado excited to end the season on a high note
The Stank:
After a successful Saturday on the diamond, we’re sticking with the prop that cashed for us: the St. Louis Cardinals over 1.5 runs in the first five innings.
Today, they face Giants starter Brayden Birdsong, who has one of the lowest pitcher ratings on Batters-Box.com’s current and default metrics. The young right-hander is giving up the most hard contact among all starting pitchers on the slate, with an almost 50% hard contact rate (48.25%). Birdsong has allowed over 1.5 runs in 11 of his 15 starts this season, including three of his four September outings. He’s sporting a 4.66 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP, with none of his pitches rated above league average. His fastball, which he uses 44% of the time, holds a -1.4 value. Nothing in his arsenal stands out.
On the other side, the Cardinals lineup features six elite-rated hitters, according to Batters-Box.com. They have no poorly rated hitters, five batters with a strikeout rate below league average, and only one who exceeds the league ground ball rate. The Cards have gone over 1.5 runs in five straight games, dating back to Tuesday, and they’ve been heating up to close out the season. This team has averaged 2.29 runs in the first five innings this year.
With Birdsong’s shaky starts and the Cardinals’ strong early-game performances, this is a great spot to back them, especially with their elite hitters at the plate.
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a play is worth my time or not.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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