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MLB Must Bet Props: Bases, Home Runs & Team Totals | August 24, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Saturday Day!
While many are focused on Week 0 of college football, we’ve got you covered there—but don’t forget there’s still money to be made on the diamond.
Let’s dive into some of these props!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Saturday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Yesterday’s write up went 1-1
Dodgers F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+105)
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Dodgers’ star, Mookie Betts preparing to bat
The Stank:
The best time to fade Tampa Bay Rays starter Taj Bradley is on the road, and that’s exactly what we’re doing today.
The Dodgers are set to face Bradley with a lineup featuring six elite-rated hitters and six above the league strikeout rate. While Bradley is known for his strikeout ability, his road numbers tell a different story. At home, he has a solid 2.83 ERA with 8.0 strikeouts per game. On the road, however, his ERA jumps to 4.50, with only 4.25 strikeouts per start, allowing an average of 2.87 runs per game. He’s also allowed teams to go over 2.5 runs in four straight starts.
With the dangerous Dodgers offense, especially with Mookie Betts back in the lineup, this could be a prime spot for another big night. They’re averaging 2.95 runs in the first five innings this season, and even better at home with 3.13 runs. This matchup favors the Dodgers for a strong performance.
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
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The Stank:
I love backing hitters who are due for a breakout.
Rafael Devers comes into today’s matchup against Zac Gallen and the Arizona Diamondbacks looking to shake off a two-game hitless streak. He holds the highest rating in this matchup on Batters-Box.com’s current season ratings, making this an excellent spot for him.
When Devers is rated as elite, he goes over 1.5 total bases 56.7% of the time and records at least one hit in 72.16% of those games.
The main pitch to watch out for from Gallen is his knuckle curve, which is well above league average. However, his other pitches, including his fastball, which he throws 46% of the time, are around or below league average. Devers has hit .267 with an OPS of 1.022 and a wRC+ of 186 against fastballs this season.
Let’s make this Saturday count and back Devers to crush his total bases prop!
Sprinkle of the Day: Rafael Devers Home Run (+420)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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