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MLB Must Bet Props: Bases, Team Totals & More | May 5, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Do not let the Sunday scaries get to you. It is a great day to take down the books. Here are a couple of plays from the diamond that I believe are worth looking at today. Another great MLB slate features some mediocre pitchers facing some great lineups.
There are so many games today that two bets do not feel like enough. Make sure to follow me on Twitter/X @C_Marchio2 for my complete Saturday card.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Sunday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio
The full MLB card went up +1.12 units last night, but the scribbles went 1-2, but one of them was a sprinkle home run prop, so it’s really is a 1-1 day.
Today is a new day. Let’s get after it.
Silly Goose Parlay: Braves Team Total Over 3.5 & Travis d’Arnaud 1+ Hit (+125) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ BetOnline
The Stank:
To avoid the series sweep against the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Atlanta Braves look to starter Max Fried and their star-studded offense. Today, it is all about the offense. The Braves offense takes on starter James Paxton, who gives up a ton of hard contact. However, has had some success early on this season, but posting an ERA of 3.51 and a WHIP of 1.68 is not good. Just a guy benefiting from being on a team that features Freeman, Betts, and Ohtani.
As per Batters-Box.com, Paxton is facing six players with an elite matchup rating and one with a great rating. This means that 77% of the Braves offense today has at least a great matchup rating against Paxton. Despite struggling to score more than three runs in this series, the Braves have been recording the second most runs per game this season, averaging 5.49 runs per game. Today presents a golden opportunity for the offense to bounce back as a whole and secure a win to avoid the series sweep.
Travis d’Arnaud is my standout player in this game. Today, he has the sixth-best rating on Batters-Box.com and the number-one rating in this game. He has been playing great ball to start the season. It is a small sample size, but it is worth stating that the Braves catcher has had the most success against Paxton. His numbers against all of Paxton’s pitches are mouthwatering, and for him to just record a hit, this is an excellent spot for him and his team in general.
Final: Dodgers 11, #Braves 2.
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) May 5, 2024
That is why I also have money on the Braves to come out on top. Losing by almost ten runs the night before leaves a sour taste in your mouth. They must come out starving for revenge after that embarrassing outing last night.
Player Prop: Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
The Stank:
Another pitcher who will have a rough day today is Astros starter Hunter Brown, who is taking on Julio Rodriguez and the Seattle Mariners. Brown has been horrific to start the 2024 season, posting a putrid 9.78 ERA and a 2.22 WHIP. He has allowed 33 hits and 25 runs in his first five starts of the season. It is not shocking that the average matchup rating today for the Mariners is 0.42 (Elite Rating).
Happy in Houston. #TridentsUp pic.twitter.com/IR4ZDMgKKh
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) May 5, 2024
Our focus in this game is on Mr. Julio Rodriguez, who holds the third-best rating, according to Batters-Box.com. The young star has been in good form, demonstrating his prowess by recording five hits in his last three games.
Rodriguez has had success against Brown, recording three hits in five at-bats, but that means nothing. The sample size is too small to be super gung-ho about those numbers. However, Rodrigues has been putting up great numbers against all of Brown’s pitches.
According to reliable Batters-Box.com, Rodriguez records at least a hit 64% of the time when having an elite matchup rating, so if we just have to sweat that second hit, I can live with that, especially with how poorly Brown has been pitching.
Where to find more advanced analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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