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MLB Must Bet Props: Champagne Theory | September 27, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Happy Friday!
Must-Bet Monday Props: Yesterday’s plays didn’t go well—another 0-2 day. As the season winds down, it’s clear these teams aren’t hungry enough to get those first-five team totals going. So, it’s time to revisit the Champagne Theory: fade the teams that popped bottles the night before.
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Yesterday’s write up went 0-2. Been an off week. The turn around is coming.
Pirates (+0.5) F5 (+100)
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Oneil Cruz looking to crush a Cruz missile tonight
After clinching the AL East Division last night, the New York Yankees celebrated by popping bottles and dousing each other in beer. Aaron Judge said they were going to “party hard,” so I have to fade this team the today.
Aaron Judge might need a day off after tonight’s party ? pic.twitter.com/346kRksbt8
— New York Post Sports (@nypostsports) September 27, 2024
Tonight, the Yankees host the Pittsburgh Pirates, with Jared Jones on the mound. This isn’t a great matchup for the Pirates; Jones is up against five elite Yankees hitters, while the Pirates don’t even have a “great” rated hitter. So why take them? I believe it doesn’t matter today. The Yankees just secured a first-round bye and don’t need these games—they will be looking to rest.
Carlos Rodon is on the mound for the Yankees, coming off a strong outing against the Athletics where he went six innings, allowing five hits and no runs on 90 pitches. This season, he boasts a sub-four ERA and a 1.21 WHIP.
On the other hand, the Pirates have a choice: they can either roll over or finish the season on a high note by spoiling the Yankees’ celebration. I like the hangover spot for the Yankees today. Give me the Pirates.
Rockies (+1.5) F5 (-164)
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It’s another “fade the bottles” game, and this time we’ve got a solid cushion of a point and a half. Sure, you might have to pay a bit of juice, but that should not deter you.
Last night, the Dodgers clinched the NL West Division with a 7-2 win over the Padres, celebrating just as hard as the Yankees did after securing their playoff spot and a first-round bye. Now, after all that celebration, they have to travel to Denver to face the Rockies.
Which Kiké are you? ? pic.twitter.com/iCv2S2eFLr
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) September 27, 2024
Tonight, Tony Gonsolin makes his first start of the 2024 season. The 30-year-old right-hander hasn’t taken the mound since last August against the Marlins, where he struggled, allowing ten runs on eight hits. It’s hard to predict how he will perform returning from Tommy John surgery, so we will rely on the Dodgers’ offense being a bit hungover. Gonsolin will definitely want to make a strong comeback.
On the other side, Cal Quantrill starts for Colorado, coming off an outing where he allowed four runs on six hits against the Dodgers last Saturday. Tonight, he’s looking for redemption, also with the Dodgers coming off a night of festivities. I really like this spot for Quantrill. While the 29-year-old right-hander has faced his share of challenges this season, his ERA is better at home—4.37 compared to 5.04 on the road.
I believe the Rockies will catch the Dodgers off guard and score some early insurance runs, keeping it close in the first five innings. Everyone hits well at Coors Field, so why not the home team that nearly averages three runs a game in this ballpark? Give me the Rockies.
Champagne Theory Record: 4-3-1 (+0.04)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a play is worth my time or not.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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