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MLB Must Bet Props: First Five Innings | August 21, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Hump Day!
Tonight’s matchups feature some intriguing opportunities that are too good to pass up. Get ready to cash in on a couple of high-value plays that might just make your night!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Yesterday’s write up went 1-2 (-1.0).
New day. New Vibes
Diamondbacks First Five Team Total Over 2.5 (-105)
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The Stank:
Another day, another opportunity to bet on the Diamondbacks’ first five innings team total over. Yesterday, this prop cashed for us, thanks to a Corbin Carroll solo home run in the fifth.
AGAINST THE MARLINS?!?
Dbacks F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-154) 2U ✅ pic.twitter.com/7hLLkb4IuV
— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) August 20, 2024
Today, Arizona might have an even better matchup as they face Miami Marlins starter, Roddery Munoz. If you’ve been following my scribbles, you know we love to fade Munoz. The 24-year-old right-hander is sporting a 5.88 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP, and he’s allowed opposing teams to surpass 2.5 runs in nine of his 16 starts this season.
Arizona boasts the number one scoring offense in the majors, averaging just under three runs per game. At home, they’re even better, averaging 3.24 runs per game.
Arizona also has six elite-rated hitters, according to Batters-Box.com’s default ratings, and in the current season’s ratings, they have eight. The entire team averages an elite rating, facing a pitcher with the worst matchup rating in both default and current season ratings.
This is an automatic play for me. The Marlins allow the second-most runs in the MLB during the first five innings, trailing only the Colorado Rockies by a literal decimal.
Give me the Snakes over 2.5.
Royals (-0.5) First Five (-125)
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The Stank:
I can’t believe who’s starting for the Los Angeles Angels tonight—38-year-old Johnny Cueto. Yes, *the* Johnny Cueto. Shimmy shimmy, here comes the pitch—Johnny Cueto. He hasn’t made a start since last season, where he finished with a 1-4 record, a 6.02 ERA, and a 1.26 WHIP. He’s well past his prime and should get absolutely shelled tonight.
Now, the Royals don’t have any elite-rated hitters, which is usually a situation I’d avoid. But I have to make this play out of principle. Will others see Cueto on the mound and do the same? Most likely. But I don’t care what others are betting on.
Cueto has the third-worst pitcher rating of the day. Kansas City still has two hitters with “great” ratings, though unfortunately, neither is Bobby Witt Jr. That said, I think Witt’s hot streak continues tonight.
The Angels allow the third-most runs in the first five innings, giving up an average of 2.89 runs. Kansas City is middle-of-the-pack in first-five scoring, but at home, they’re putting up 2.69 runs.
On the mound for the Royals is Michael Lorenzen, who doesn’t have the best pitcher matchup rating today, but I’m not too concerned about the Angels’ bats. They average just 2.27 runs per game in the first five innings and are batting .200 as a team against Lorenzen in 55 plate appearances.
Considering the price and the fact that we’re fading a guy who’s one step away from retirement, this is a solid play tonight.
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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