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MLB Must Bet Props: Home Runs & First Five Plays | August 14, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Wednesday!
Welcome to Hump Day baseball! Dive into today’s action with some sizzling props: watch for fireworks from struggling pitchers and a historic milestone.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Yesterday’s write up went 2-0! Let’s keep the ball rolling into today!
Rockies vs Diamondbacks F5 Over 5.5 (+100)
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Diamondbacks stud, Josh Bell points to the heavens after a nuke missile that left the yard
The Stank:
It’s time for another edition of “Fade Those Awful Pitchers.”
Today’s focus is on Jordan Montgomery and Tanner Gordon, both of whom have poor pitcher matchup ratings. According to Batters-Box.com, they rank among the bottom five pitchers today. They will each face a combined total of eight elite-rated hitters, with only two batters exceeding the league strikeout rate.
The Rockies have struggled offensively on the road, preferring their home turf in Denver. Nevertheless, this could be a good opportunity for them. Montgomery has struggled significantly with hard contact and has poor day-game statistics, posting a 7.94 ERA in five day starts this season. His overall ERA is 6.37 with a 1.68 WHIP. The Rockies have five elite-rated hitters today, and if they can score two or more runs, we should be in good shape.
The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, are one of the best scoring teams in baseball, averaging 2.98 runs in the first five innings. At home, they increase this to 3.19 runs per game. Gordon has also had a rough season, with a 6.15 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. He has allowed more than four runs in three of his five starts this season. Although he had a solid outing against Atlanta recently, allowing two runs in five innings, I expect him to struggle on the road in Arizona.
Therefore, the play here is the F5 OVER 5.5.
Aaron Judge Home Run (+255)
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The Stank:
I’m hoping for a milestone moment in Chicago.
Aaron Judge is currently sitting at 299 career home runs, and last night marked the anniversary of his first home run. On that day, Judge and Tyler Austin became the first rookie duo to hit their first home runs in back-to-back at-bats. While Judge didn’t hit his 300th last night, I’m confident today is the day.
Judge is entering today with the highest rating on Batters-Box.com and will be facing White Sox starter Davis Martin, who relies heavily on just one pitch that is above league average. Judge has been exceptional against Martin’s primary pitches, batting nearly .300 and posting an OPS of 1.038 or higher against them.
The odds might not be great, which could suggest he’ll hit it tonight, but that’s not guaranteed. If you like this play, make sure to find the best odds available.
Sprinkle of the Day: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 RBI (+215)
- Soto hit three home runs last night. I expect him to get walked and lead into the 2-run nuke that Judge should smash
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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