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MLB Must Bet Props: Home Runs, Sides & Bases | May 3, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Welcome to the weekend! Let’s start with my must-bet props for this beautiful Friday. I have two full plays and a home run sprinkle. I think you will enjoy all of them.
The weekend starts now. Let’s sweep!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Friday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio
Over the past week I am up +5.6 Units.
Please, remember to gamble responsibly, there is not need to be insane like Shohei’s translator.
Team Prop: Braves Moneyline (+100) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ BetOnline
The Stank:
Love at first sight indeed does exist. I am in love with the Braves moneyline against Gavin Stone and the Dodgers. Stone has been struggling to start the season, allowing 24 hits and 13 runs in his first five starts. Posting a 4.68 ERA and a WHIP of 1.44.
According to Batters-Box.com, Stone will face a formidable lineup boasting five elite hitters. Today’s Braves average hitter matchup rating is an impressive 0.45, indicating a lineup full of elite matchups. In addition, Stone will not face a single hitter with an above-average strikeout rate.
Off to LA ✈️#BravesCountry pic.twitter.com/8YLUBrgL4S
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) May 1, 2024
Leading the charge for the Braves is the seasoned Charlie Morton, who has had a start to the year similar to Stone’s. However, today he only has to contend with one hitter with an Elite Matchup Rating. Unfortunately, that player is Shohei Ohtani, but one elite player is manageable. The average hitter matchup rating for Los Angeles is 0.394 (Above Average Rating). Morton will be facing five hitters who are above league average in strikeout rate.
Coming off that win over the Mariners on Wednesday afternoon to avoid the sweep, the Braves are now heading into Los Angeles with some momentum. The Braves should get it done against an inconsistent Dodgers squad.
Player Props: Davis Schneider Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
& Home Run (+440) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
The Stank:
Happy Patrick Corbin Day to all of the sick animals who celebrate this marvelous holiday. The Nationals veteran pitcher comes into today’s game with a disgusting 6.82 ERA and a 1.89 WHIP. In his first six starts of the season, he has allowed 47 hits and 27 runs.
Pick up your jaw. It’s Patrick Corbin; you are not that shocked.
Corbin throws 83% breaking ball pitches (Sinker, Slider, Cutter), all of which the mustache man, Davis Schneider, crushes. This season, he is batting over .333 and has a wRC+ over 101 against all three of those pitches. According to Batters-Box.com, Schneider has the number one matchup rating coming into today.
https://twitter.com/BluejaysKing/status/1784747854340248035
The young stud went 0-3 with two strikeouts in his last game against the Royals. This is the perfect time to bounce back and have a Friday. I like this play so much I have also sprinkled on his home run prop. Schneider has not gone yard since April 21. All of Patrick Corbin’s main pitches are well below league average. I will gladly use the greatest line in all of sports when a player is ice cold, but you have a feeling. HE IS DUE!
Where to find more advanced analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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