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MLB Must Bet Props: Home Runs, Team Totals & More | August 7, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Tonight’s bets are hot!
Can the Nationals keep their momentum against Blake Snell in a potential letdown spot? And will the Orioles exploit Bowden Francis’s struggles for a big rebound?
Let’s have a day!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Yesterday’s write up went 2-0, both first five team totals cash, and cashed EARLY! Let’s keep that momentum rolling!
Orioles F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-105)
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Jordan Westburg and Cedric Mullins dapping up after scoring
The Stank:
Ladies and gentlemen, it’s that time again—let’s capitalize on the weakest pitcher on the slate. Bowden Francis of the Toronto Blue Jays is currently rated as one of the worst pitchers, with the second-highest hard contact rate according to Batters-Box.com’s current season ratings. He’s facing the Orioles, who have the highest average hitter matchup rating.
Baltimore boasts six hitters rated as elite, with no poor ratings and only two hitters above the league average strikeout rate. After a tough loss to Toronto last night, the Orioles are eager to bounce back against Francis. Although the sample size is small, Baltimore is batting .333 with an OPS of 1.068 against Francis in 39 plate appearances.
I fully expect the Orioles’ bats to be hot tonight. They rank in the top five for first-five inning scoring, averaging nearly three runs in those innings. This is a great spot for them.
Nationals F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (+100)
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The Stank:
Yes, we’re heading back to the Nationals.
Blake Snell is coming off a no-hitter agaist the Reds and a strong performance against the Rockies, so he’s in a potential letdown spot.
The Nationals were impressive last night, scoring 11 runs, including eight in the first five innings. While it’s possible they could experience a letdown after such a big offensive night, I believe their bats will remain hot.
Congrats to Blake Snell on the no-hitter. Never even went 8 innings before tonight. 114 pitches, his arm is still attached to his body, and he did something everyone in that stadium will remember forever. Let’s keep playing real baseball, people.
— Super 70s Sports (@Super70sSports) August 3, 2024
Despite being 10 games under .500, the Nationals often put up a good fight in the first five innings. They rank 15th in first-five inning scoring, averaging 2.45 runs, which is comfortably over 1.5.
The strategy here is to bet against Snell following two of his best outings of the season. Generally, pitchers don’t perform as well after a no-hitter.
We just need two runs! I’ve got confidence in the Nationals—how about you?
Sprinkles of the Day:
- Matt Wallner HR (+560)
- Teoscar Hernandez HR (+520)
- Josh Jung HR (+560)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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