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MLB Must Bet Props: Pitcher Props | May 28, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Back again with some more player props from the diamond. Yesterday was good for us, so let’s keep the good vibes rolling into tonight’s plays.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Tuesday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio
Yesterday the write up went 1-1 and broke even. Full card went up (+3.2U).
Let’s keep the great energy going!!
Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+125)
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Toronto Blue Jays Starter, Kevin Gausman throwing a heater
The Stank:
It’s time to head to the Southside of Chicago to Guaranteed Rate Field, where people attend the games only for the food.
Kevin Gausman is on the bump today for the visiting Blue Jays, and I am very fond of the over on his strikeout prop. Facing a White Sox roster that features eight hitters above the league strikeout rate, zero elite ratings, and zero great-rated hitters. On top of that, Chicago’s average hitter matchup rating is just above average.
This underperforming roster has been far from impressive all season, with the ninth-worst strikeout rate in the MLB. In fact, pitchers have exceeded this number in three of their last five games against them.
Although Gausman has only gone over 6.5 strikeouts twice this season, he has recorded at least six strikeouts in six of his ten starts this season. The Blue Jays veteran comes into today’s game with an average hitter matchup strikeout percentage of 32.45%. According to Batters-Box.com, when pitchers have a rating above 32%+, they go over 6.5 strikeouts 55% of the time.
This White Sox team has averaged 10.67 strikeouts per game in their last three games. We just need seven of them to go to Mr. Kevin Gausman.
Jared Jones Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+115)
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The Stank:
Young, talented, and plays for the Pirates.
No, not Paul Skenes. Have some respect for Jared Jones.
The Pirates’ young stud has been wheeling and dealing on the bump this season, giving hitters all kinds of headaches at the plate. Today, he takes on a Tigers team struggling with strikeouts. Detroit is the tenth worst in strikeout percentage this season. When your lineup features Javy Baez, it only makes sense why the team would be inside the top ten in strikeouts.
Happy Jared Jones Day!
Jones has a 3.05 ERA and using a pitch mix of:
4-Seam: 49.1% (30.4% Whiff Rate)
Slider: 37.7% (42.1% Whiff Rate)
Curve: 7.5% (35.3% Whiff Rate)
Changeup: 5.7% (34.3% Whiff Rate) pic.twitter.com/lXhZt0khGg— ??? (@NorthShoreNine) May 28, 2024
Tonight, the Tigers have eight hitters with above-league strikeout rates and one elite hitter (Kerry Carpenter; I did take him to get a hit at -143). Their average hitter matchup rating is above average, so it is not favorable.
Jones has been a consistent strikeout machine this season, surpassing this number in seven of his ten starts. Like Kevin Gausman, Jones has an average hitter matchup strikeout percentage above 32%. Given his track record, I believe this will be a favorable matchup for Jones. He has been tested time and time again. He should be fine, even against a Tigers roster that has been seeing the ball a little better lately.
Where to find more advanced analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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