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MLB Must Bet Props: San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | October 6, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Sunday!
Game two of the NLDS between the Padres and Dodgers is shaping up to be a wild one. With both teams bringing firepower to the plate, two standout props offer some serious value in this matchup.
Let’s dive into what caught my eye this morning!
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Yesterday’s write up went 1-0
2024 MLB Season: +14.92 Units
Jack Flaherty Over 1.5 Walks (-105)
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Will we see a Jack Flaherty masterclass tonight?
Back to another pitcher prop after Zack Wheeler’s masterclass yesterday. We’re heading to Los Angeles, taking Dodgers starter Jack Flaherty’s walk prop at over 1.5.
The 28-year-old right-hander has allowed two walks in 11 of his 28 starts this season. Not the flashiest stat, but he’s hit this mark in four of his last five games and six of his last ten. Since joining the Dodgers at the trade deadline, Flaherty has averaged 1.9 walks per start.
The Padres are one of the most disciplined teams in baseball—they don’t strike out much, work the count, and battle every at-bat, which sets up plenty of walk opportunities. So far this postseason, San Diego has a walk rate of 8.5%, just a hair under the league average of 8.9%.
The two teams just faced off, and Flaherty gave up three walks in 5.0 innings. He will either come out and shove or repeat his September 25th outing, where he gave up three walks along with three runs on four hits.
Give me the walks!
Padres vs Dodgers F5 Over 4.5 Runs (-105)
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Now that we already know how much Jack Flaherty struggled against San Diego back in September, let’s dig into his matchup today. Over on Batters-Box.com, Flaherty has an above-average matchup rating but a poorly rated average hitter matchup ISO. He’s also allowing the second-most hard contact of any pitcher on the slate.
Flaherty faces three elite-rated Padres hitters today. As mentioned, the Padres lead the league in lowest strikeouts per game, and every at-bat is a battle with them. San Diego also ranks top 12 in first five runs, averaging 2.58 this season. On the road, that number jumps to 2.84, the fourth most in the league.
On the flip side, the Dodgers face Yu Darvish, who has the worst average hitter matchup ISO and allows the most hard contact among today’s starters. Darvish has allowed 2+ runs in nine of his 16 starts this season, with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP.
The Dodgers have the second-highest scoring offense in the first five at home, averaging 3.16 runs in that span.
Everything points toward early success for both offenses. Give me the first five over 4.5!
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a play is worth my time or not.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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