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MLB Must Bet Props Saturday Night Slate: Sides & Player Props
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Do not tell me you thought I was only going to have plays for the day games. Wrong. There is so much baseball today it would be impossible for me to take the night off. Here are a couple of plays that should fill you up before you go out on the town for a couple drinks with some friends and/or significant other.
Word of advice: always tail a person that does not bet. They for some reason either hit or come a leg short. It makes no sense, but it is always worth the sprinkle. Beginners luck is a thing.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Saturday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio
Full card went 4-3 (+2.25 Units) last night. Today is a new day. Let’s get after it.
Dodgers Moneyline (-148) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ BetOnline
Mookie Betts celebrating a home run while rounding the bases
The Stank:
The juice is a little pricey but well worth the squeeze. Coming off a loss in last night’s series opener, the Dodgers look to bounce back tonight against Padres starter Matt Waldron. According to Batters-box.com, the two-year starter will be taking on five elite hitters, zero poor-rated hitters, and three hitters above league average strikeout rate. Waldron’s plate will be filled with heavy hitters who will pounce all over his weak pitches.
WELCOME TO SAN DIEGO, LUIS ARRAEZ!!!! pic.twitter.com/Q0TsJkLK7J
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) May 11, 2024
On the other hand, James Paxton will be facing a formidable lineup of three elite hitters: Kyle Higashioka, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr. While these are certainly big names, the Dodgers’ hard contact stats outweigh the Padres’. With a 3.06 ERA and an undefeated record of 4-0, Paxton has been a reliable force in his six starts this season, averaging just 1.8 earned runs per game. His sustainability is a key factor for the Dodgers.
It is very rare for this Dodgers squad to score only one run in a game since they are number one in runs per game, averaging 5.38 runs. I do not see the Padres holding this star-studded roster to just one run again tonight. I am all in on the Dodgers tonight -148.
Player Prop: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
The Stank:
In order for the prop above to cash, I believe it starts and ends with the Dodgers’ three-headed monster. However, in this particular case, we only care about one of those heads: Freddie Freeman.
As we delve into the numbers, it’s clear that Freeman has an elite matchup rating against Padres starter Matt Waldron. According to Batters-Box.com, when having an elite rating, Freeman records at least a hit 77.78% of the time and goes over this prop 44.44% of the time. Sure, that is not as flashy as the 1+ hit percentage.
Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman on the same team means one thing:
They’re going to get the damn job done, no lead will ever be too big for them to come back from.
?: @SportsNetLA pic.twitter.com/QvNDZbuL9I
— Dodgers Nation (@DodgersNation) May 11, 2024
However, Waldron has not been good all season long, Posting a 5.82 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. The five pitches in his repertoire are all below league average. Freeman has been putting up some solid numbers against all those pitches, including the knuckleball, which Waldron uses the most (35%). In his career, Freeman has seen a knuckleball 90 times and is batting .444 with an OPS of 1.427 and a wRC+ of 299.
Today holds immense potential for the Dodgers and, most importantly, Mr. Freeman. With the stats in our favor, let’s gear up for an exhilarating Saturday!
Where to find more advanced analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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