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MLB Must Bet Props: Sides, Totals & Home Runs | June 10, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Happy Monday you sick, degenerate filth animals! A new week has arrived, which means another week to take advantage of the books.
We have a beautiful slate of baseball games today and I found a couple of plays that can start our week off with a bang!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Monday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio
Another successful week: 15-21-0 (+4.6 Units) | Let’s keep it rolling!
Let’s keep that energy going!
Moneyline: Astros (-115)
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Houston Astros star, Yordan Alvarez sends ball into orbit
The Stank:
We will treat the Astros like you did with your best friend from college and ignore entirely the fact that they are cheaters. We are here to make money and have fun, not worry about our morals.
Today, the Astros take on Kyle Harrison and the San Francisco Giants. Mr. Harrison has a lot on his plate today as he has to face a team with the highest average hitter matchup rating, according to Batters-box.com. The Astros have three elite-rated hitters: Chas McCormick (3rd-best rating of the day), Yordan Alvarez (8th), and Jose Altuve (9th). On top of that, Houston only has two hitters above league average in strikeout rate, giving the Astros a massive offensive advantage.
On the mound for the Astros is 24-year old, Spencer Arrighetti, who has shown resilience in his recent outings. Despite a season with its fair share of struggles, he has posted a 5.79 ERA along with a 1.67 WHIP. However, in his last two outings, he has only allowed one run in 9.0 innings pitched. Although he has struggled this season, he holds the second-highest pitcher rating today on Batters-box.com. Gives hope that he can hold it down against a team that is 23rd in F5 (first five innings) scoring. The Astros should come out on top.
Additional Play: Astros First Five innings Team Total Over 2.5 (+124)
- My entire handicap is based around the Astros having a successful first five innings
- Kyle Harrison has gone five straight outings allowing over this number
- Nine of Harrison’s 13 starts he has allowed a team to go over this number
- Houston is ninth in first five inning runs (2.62)
Player Prop Bet: Jurickson Profar 1+ Hit (-160)
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The Stank:
There is nothing sexier than a mispriced player prop. Today, that mispriced prop is Jurickson Profar to record a hit.
Jurickson Profar is an MVP contender pic.twitter.com/icHd0v95vJ
— Javier Reyes (@Javiipeno) June 9, 2024
Profar is not just having a good year, he’s having one of his best. With a .325 average and an OPS of .925, he’s earned a spot in the top 10 of Btters-Box.com’s matchup ratings. The Padres outfielder has the 7th best matchup rating today. In his last ten games, he’s been on fire, hitting .333 with an OPS of .974, including 12 hits and four multi-hit games.
Facing off against Athletics starter Joey Estes, who has been a typical F’s, sorry A’s starter, below average, but serviceable. Estes relies primarily on fastballs, accompanied by a below-average slider and an even worse changeup. Profar has been studying Estes’s pitches and has been on top of every single one this season. With the price, the matchup, and the situation, it’s hard to pass up on a guy who has been playing so well as of late just to get a hit.
Two and a half unit play for Profar to record just a hit. Let’s dance.
Sprinkle of the Day: Daniel Vogelbach Home Run (Odds Pending)
- Odds will be well over +600
- Number 2 matchup rating on Batters-Box.com
- I love Danny Burgers
Where to find more advanced analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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