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MLB Must Bet Props: Strictly First Five Props | August 28, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Hump Day!
Ready to make your Hump Day even better? Dive into today’s picks with the Orioles’ first five team total and watch the Astros bounce back early against the struggling Phillies. Let’s turn this Wednesday into a winning day!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Yesterday’s write up went 1-1. The hooks continue to kill us.
Astros F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-125)
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Houston Astros third baseman, Alex Bregman fired up after a long ball
The Stank:
The Phillies are hosting the Houston Astros today, with Taijuan Walker taking the mound for Philadelphia. The Astros are looking to bounce back after being shut out the night before.
FINAL: Phillies 5, #Astros 0
— Houston Astros (@astros) August 28, 2024
Houston is in an ideal spot to recover, featuring six elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box.com. They have no poorly rated hitters and only three who strike out more than average against Walker. The 32-year-old Phillies right-hander has the worst pitcher rating in the current season ratings, with a troubling 6.26 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP. He’s allowed opponents to exceed 2.5 runs in five consecutive starts and in ten of his 13 starts this season.
Despite recent cold spells, Houston remains a formidable team in the first five innings, averaging 2.42 runs. Even in a down year, they’re known for having explosive games, and today seems like a prime opportunity for them to come alive early against the Phillies.
Orioles F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+114)
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The Stank:
Unfortunately, I have to return to a team that has consistently disappointed me. Nevertheless, with six elite hitters, the highest average hitter matchup rating, and no poorly rated hitters, I’m betting on the Orioles’ first five team total.
The Orioles are facing Dodgers’ right-hander Walker Buehler, who currently has the second worst pitcher rating on today’s current season ratings. With a 6.09 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP, Buehler has been struggling this year. In his last start, he gave up seven hits and three runs over four innings against the Seattle Mariners, managing only one strikeout despite the Mariners having the highest strikeout rate in baseball.
Buehler has allowed teams to exceed 2.5 runs in seven consecutive games. He’s either due for a turnaround or this trend will persist. Given the favorable odds, I’m betting on the trend continuing.
Baltimore remains a top ten team in first five scoring, averaging 2.83 runs per game. If they can’t capitalize on Buehler’s struggles tonight, they will be officially off my list.
Sprinkles of the Day:
- Jake Burger (+265)
- Gunnar Henderson (+560)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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