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MLB Must Bet Props: Strikeouts & Total Bases | May 21, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Tuesday’s must bet player props. I stepped out of my comfort zone today and added a couple strikeout props that grabbed me while I was going through the slate of games.
Don’t miss out on the Pickoff today at 4:30 PM EST on the Betting News Twitch channel. We have a special treat for you, the insightful Danny Burke will be joining us. With his expertise and our combined knowledge, we’ll be breaking down our entire Tuesday card.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Tuesday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio
Yesterday’s full card broke even 2-4 (0.00 Units).
Cristian Javier Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+108)
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Houston Astros Starter, Cristian Javier throwing
The Stank:
After the Angels shocked the Astros in the fifth inning of Monday’s game, scoring seven unanswered runs to eventually win the game and take game one of the series, Cristian Javier and the Astros look to bounce back tonight against a team they have no reason to lose to.
Zach Neto hits the Angels’ fourth home run of the game! pic.twitter.com/39xDkn4OFP
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) May 21, 2024
Javier takes on a roster filled to put the ball in play. Today, the Angels have seven hitters above the league-average strikeout rate. Although, Javier has only gone over this number twice this season. The average hitter matchup strikeout rate between Javier and the Angels is 31.09%. According to Batters-Box.com, pitchers with an average strikeout rate of over 30% hitter matchup go over 5.5 strikeouts 65% of the time.
I expect the Angels to come back down to Earth after their explosive performance last night. I also do not hate the Astros runline in this one. They have a great matchup against Griffin Canning, who has been brutal all season.
Yusei Kikuchi Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-137)
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The Stank:
It is a big day for strikeout props.
We head to the Six, where the Blue Jays host the White Sucks…sorry..White Sox. 32-year-old leftie Yusei Kikuchi gets the start for Toronto. The seasoned veteran has been putting up some decent numbers this season. Posting a 2.60 ERA, along with a 1.10 WHIP. On top of that, Kikuchi has exceeded 5.5 in five of his nine starts this season.
Today, he faces one of the worst teams ever assembled. In today’s matchup, the White Sox have six hitters above the league strikeout rate. According to Batters-Box.com, a few White Sox hitters have elite matchup ratings, but that is only because of how much hard contact Kikuchi has given up over the last three seasons.
Chicago has been struggling with strikeouts as of late. In four straight games, the opposing starter has recorded 6+ strikeouts. The average hitter matchup strikeout rate between Kikuchi and the White Sox is 29.63%. According to Batters-Box.com, pitchers with an average strikeout rate of over 30% hitter matchup go over 5.5 strikeouts 62% of the time.
Will today be the day Chicago gets on top of the opposing starter to end this streak of pitchers going over 5.5 strikeouts? To the gambling gods, we pray, please, no. Amen.
William Contreras Over 1.5 Total Bases (+112) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
The Stank:
Going 0-9 in his last two games, William Contreras is beyond due for a bounce-back game. This series against the Marlins will be the perfect opportunity. With Miami being predominantly left-handed pitchers, Contreras should, at the bare minimum, record at least a hit.
Today, according to Batters-Box.com, he has the tenth-best matchup rating. In 25 elite-rated games, he has recorded at least a hit 72% of the time, and over his 1.5 total bases prop 56% of the time. In his last two seasons, the Brewers star catcher has been mashing left-handed pitchers. Since the beginning of last year, he has been batting .355 with an OPS of 1.052.
With William Contreras going 0-9 in his last two games and with the Marlins starting rotation being predominantly left-handed pitchers. I will be riding his bases prop for the remainder of this series.
Vs. Lefties (29 AB) this season: .345 AVG | .865 OPS
Since 2023 (211 AB):…
— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) May 21, 2024
Going up against Trevor Rogers, who has been awful all season. He has one pitch that is above league average by a literal hair. The rest of his repertoire is well below league average. Contreras has been destroying all of those pitches all year long.
If not today. It is tomorrow. I will be taking this prop for the remainder of this series.
Where to find more advanced analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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