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MLB Must Bet Props: Team Totals, Bases & Home Runs | October 8, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Tuesday!
After a hot night, we’re looking ahead to tonight’s props. We’re focusing on the Dodgers vs. Padres matchup, where two standout props caught our eye. We’ll be taking advantage of weak pitching and strong hitter matchups.
Let’s dive in!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Tuesday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Monday’s write up went 2-0
2024 MLB Season: +18.92 Units
Padres F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+110)
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Can Fernando Tatis Jr’s bat stay white hot in Game 3?
Death. Taxes. And me betting on a first five team total prop.
Today, we’re rolling with arguably the most dangerous team in the postseason right now—the San Diego Padres, who are hosting the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 3 of the NLDS. The series is tied 1-1, and it’s been a thriller so far.
The Padres face Dodgers starter Walker Buehler, who holds the worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box.com this season. He’s coming off a September 26th start against San Diego, where he went 5 innings, allowing 1 run on 5 hits. Buehler has been one of the more inconsistent arms in this Dodgers rotation, with a 5.38 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. His road numbers are even worse, with a 6.53 ERA, giving up an average of 3.5 runs per start.
Today, the Padres lineup features four elite-rated hitters, none below average, and zero strikeout-prone guys. They’ve been top-10 in first five scoring all season, averaging 2.58 runs.
This is the third time the Padres are facing Buehler this season. After getting handled by him last time, I think they’ll be motivated for some payback—especially at home, where the crowd will be electric.
Give me the Padres’ first five team total over 2.5!
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
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Staying in this Dodgers vs. Padres matchup, I’m taking a total base prop on Mr. Jackson Merrill. I’m backing the Padres’ rising star to surpass two bases.
The young stud comes in with an elite rating on both of Batters-Box.com’s metrics. His elite trends are mouthwatering: when he has an elite rating, Merrill records a hit 84.21% of the time, goes over 1.5 bases 68.42% of the time, and leaves the yard 26.32% of the time—all based on a 19-game sample.
Suggestion: if the total bases prop scares you, take his hit and pair it with another player you like to get plus money. Or take his hits, runs, and RBIs prop, which he goes over 78.95% of the time. That HRR prop gives you a nice safety net.
Such a sweet swing by Jackson Merrill ? #NLDS pic.twitter.com/NyRpNbI5zO
— MLB (@MLB) October 7, 2024
As for Dodgers starter Walker Buehler, he holds a poor rating this season. His trends are just as tasty: he’s allowed at least one home run in 50% of his poor-rated outings. The 30-year-old righty has a deep pitch arsenal, but all but one of his offerings are below league average. His cutter is his best, valued at 4.5. Merrill, on the other hand, is crushing it this season, batting .349 with a .937 OPS and a wRC+ of 158. He’s got stellar numbers against the rest of Buehler’s repertoire.
After his three-hit performance in Game 2, everything is pointing to another big game for the rookie.
Give me Merrill over 1.5 bases!
Sprinkle of the Day: Jackson Merril Home Run (+450)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a play is worth my time or not.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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