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MLB Must Bet Props: Team Totals, Bases & Home Runs | September 3, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Tuesday!
People may think we’re crazy for our dedication to finding consistent value in baseball, but we’re committed to the end. With that in mind, here are a couple of diamond plays to kick off our Tuesday.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Tuesday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
August MLB recap: 95-119 (+31.88 Units).
Yesterday’s write up went 1-1. Hooked again on yet another team total.
Nationals F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-160)
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James Wood giving high fives to teammates after home run
The Stank:
Some might view this game as a snoozer, but I strongly disagree. With the Nationals featuring several elite-rated hitters, this matchup promises to be exciting. As of today, the Nationals have the second-highest average hitter matchup rating, boasting five elite-rated hitters and only three players above the league’s strikeout rate, according to Batters-Box.com.
The Nationals will face Marlins starter Max Meyer, who has struggled this season with a 5.44 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. Meyer has allowed opponents to score more than 1.5 runs in eight of his ten starts, including seven consecutive starts. The 25-year-old has the third-highest average hitter matchup hard contact percentage on the day, giving up nearly 40% hard contact to opposing hitters.
Although the Nationals are perceived as one of the league’s weaker teams, they are quite gritty for a squad 15 games below .500. They are middle-of-the-pack in first-five scoring, averaging 2.36 runs per game.
Coming off a 14-1 blowout loss to the Chicago Cubs on Sunday, the Nationals should be motivated to take on the Marlins’ struggling rotation. Miami allows the second-most runs in the first five innings, giving up 3.17 runs per game at home. With five elite-rated hitters in the default ratings and six in the current season, the Nationals should easily exceed 1.5 runs.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+104)
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The Stank:
When a hitter tops both Batters-Box.com’s default and current season ratings, it’s worth a closer look—especially when it’s not Aaron Judge, who regularly appears at the top due to his consistent hard contact. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leading both ratings is particularly noteworthy.
After going 3-for-5 last night with three hits, an RBI, and a run, Guerrero Jr. faces Phillies starter Tyler Phillips today. Phillips has struggled in his last three starts, giving up 20 hits and 17 runs over 11 innings. He holds the second-worst pitcher rating this season on Batters Box and allows the second-most hard contact. Three of his five pitches are below league average, including his most frequently used sinker and slider. Guerrero Jr. is hitting over .300 with an OPS above .805 against both of these pitches.
I’m confident that Guerrero Jr. will have a standout performance tonight, and I expect the entire Blue Jays lineup to capitalize on Phillips. I’d bet on Guerrero Jr. to hit the bases and consider sprinkling in a home run bet as well.
Sprinkle of the Day:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Home Run (+450)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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