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MLB Must Bet Props: Saturday Team Totals & Home Runs
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Top MLB Prop Bets for Saturday’s Slate
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio
Yesterday’s write up swept 2-0, as for the full card it went 3-4 (+0.66 Units).
Team Total: Mets F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-110)
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New York Mets Star, Pete Alonso celebrates home run
The Stank:
I bet on the Mets F5 team total yesterday, but they fell short by a run. Today is a new day, and the Marlins have gifted us another mediocre starter.
I’m going to start doing this more when teams score most of their runs in the 5th but don’t go over their team total
The “just an inning off” theory
We will be testing this out for the remainder of the season. pic.twitter.com/omyM0QX2WY
— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) July 20, 2024
Roddery Munoz comes into today with the lowest pitcher rating on Batters-Box.com. The 24-year-old has a 5.47 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP this season. In five of his ten starts, he has allowed team to go over 2.5 runs. This will be his second start against New York this season. In their first encounter, Munoz pitched six innings, giving up only one hit and no runs. Seems like a revenge opportunity for the Mets.
New York boasts the highest average hitter matchup rating today, graded as Elite on Batters-Box.com. They have five elite hitters (six in the current season ratings), zero poor performers, and only one hitter above the league’s strikeout rate.
Despite their tough season, the Mets are still in the top ten for first five scoring, averaging 2.67 runs per game. Surprisingly, they perform better on the road, scoring nearly three runs per game. Fortunately for us, the Marlins allow more runs at home—specifically, they give up the most runs in the league, averaging 3.20 runs to opponents in the first five innings.
Everything points in the direction of the Mets having a successful first five innings. Let’s ride!
Team Total: Giants F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-125)
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The Stank:
Here’s a refined and more engaging version of your text:
Right behind Munoz in the pitcher ratings is Rockies’ starter Kyle Freeland, who ranks second-worst today. He also holds the third-highest average hitter hard contact rate (43.33%) and the second-worst average hitter wOBA. This season, Freeland sports a dismal 6.00 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. It’s enough to make your mouth water.
However, despite not allowing more than 2.5 runs in his last four starts, I anticipate some regression today. The Giants have found great success against the left-hander, batting .330 with a .906 OPS across 91 plate appearances. Only three hitters have faced him more than ten times. Here’s hoping that success continues today.
San Francisco comes into today with the third-best average hitter rating, featuring four elite and no poor hitters, with only one hitter striking out above the league rate. Although they haven’t been the best first-five scoring team overall, playing at Coors Field can change everything.
With Freeland due for regression, I’m confident the Giants will come out swinging in Colorado today.
Sprinkle of the Day: Shohei Ohtani Home Run (+270)
- When elite this season he homers 25% of the time
- When elite over the last three seasons homers 31.37% of the time
- Day After Theory – I liked him yesterday. Had a terrible start to the game, finished with a double
Where to find more advanced analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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