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MLB Must Bet Props: Team Totals & Home Runs | October 18, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 3 minutes
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Happy Friday!
Game 5 of the NLCS has the Dodgers one win away from punching their ticket to the World Series, with the Mets standing as the final hurdle. After dominating New York in the previous game, Los Angeles looks to capitalize on a familiar matchup against David Peterson. With everything on the line, the Dodgers’ offense is poised to strike early and finish this series in style.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Friday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Thursday’s write up went 1-0.
Dodgers F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-145)
Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
Mookie Betts celebrating after homer run
After a great night, we’re back again with a first five play—this time taking the Dodgers’ first five team total over 1.5 runs.
The Dodgers are just one game away from clinching the National League pennant and heading to the World Series. Tonight, they face Mets starter David Peterson, whom they just saw on Sunday. Peterson lasted only 2.1 innings, giving up three runs on four hits in what was his worst outing in weeks. Before Sunday, he hadn’t allowed a run since September 20th. This season, Peterson has given up 2+ runs in 14 of his 21 outings. According to Batters-Box.com, he is rated poorly in average hitter matchup wOBA, ISO, and hard contact. Over the last three seasons, Peterson has been giving up a ton of hard contact, with today’s rating sitting at an insane 37.22%.
Peterson is up against a stacked Los Angeles lineup featuring three elite-rated hitters in Batter’s Box’s default ratings and two in their current season rankings. In their last three games, the Dodgers are averaging 2.67 runs in the first five innings. While it’s a small sample size, as a team, they’re batting .343 with a .992 OPS against Peterson over a lifetime sample of 67 at-bats.
The Dodgers are the superior team in this matchup and need to come out hot. With the Mets all but out of the series, all L.A. needs is two runs to put the game away. Let’s lock this in and call it a night, Los Angeles.
Sprinkles of the Day:
- Pete Alonso Home Run (+400)
- Teoscar Hernandez Home Run (+560)
- Silly Goose Parlay: Alonso + Hernandez 1+ Hit (+149)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a play is worth my time or not.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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