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MLB Must Bet Props: Team Totals | September 26, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Friday Junior!
Must-Bet Monday Props: Yesterday’s theory plays went 0-3, so it might be time to retire the Champagne Theory for now. However, there are still plenty of hungry teams and hitters to consider in the final days of the regular season. Here are a few plays to kick off this beautiful Thursday.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Thursday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Yesterday’s write up went 0-2. Been an off week. The turn around is coming.
Padres F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+124)
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Can red hot Fernando Tatis Jr. keep it going against the Dodgers tonight?
The Stank:
Today, we’re fading the two worst pitchers on the slate according to Batters-Box.com’s current season and default ratings. On the mound for the Dodgers is Walker Buehler, who has been struggling lately. This month, he has allowed 13 runs in 21.1 innings, with a 5.06 ERA over four starts. For the season, his ERA stands at 5.63, accompanied by a 1.58 WHIP.
The Padres come into today’s game with five elite-rated hitters, no poor-rated players, and no hitters above the league strikeout rate, making them one of the most disciplined teams in Major League Baseball. They also have the highest matchup wOBA in the current season ratings. Ranking in the top 15, they average 2.56 runs in the first five innings, improving to 2.87 runs on the road.
In their last matchup, Buehler faced the Padres and lasted only 3.1 innings, allowing five hits, two home runs, and three runs. I believe the Padres will continue their success against their rivals as they head into the postseason.
I’m taking the Padres’ first five team total over!
Twins F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-140)
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The Stank:
In another matchup featuring a poorly rated starting pitcher, Marlins’ Valente Bellozo, who has the lowest rating of the day, takes the mound against the Twins. Bellozo has struggled recently, allowing opponents to exceed 2.5 runs in three consecutive starts. Over the season, he has allowed teams to score more than 2.5 runs in six of his 12 outings, posting a 3.82 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP.
The 24-year-old right-hander faces a Minnesota lineup that boasts five elite-rated hitters and no poorly rated players, with none exceeding the league average for strikeouts. The Twins also hold the highest matchup ISO of the day and rank in the top 15 for scoring in the first five innings, averaging 2.7 runs at home. Although they have averaged just two runs in their last three games, today presents a prime opportunity for a breakout if they are motivated to push for the postseason.
Needed that!!! pic.twitter.com/m01vgpaYCr
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) September 26, 2024
Currently, the Twins are two games out of the third spot in the AL Wild Card and need to maintain their drive to secure every possible win. Facing a team that allows the most runs in the first five innings puts them in an excellent position to capitalize on this matchup.
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a play is worth my time or not.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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