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MLB Must Bet Props: Team Totals & Sides | May 17, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Friday has finally arrived. Get your bets in, grab a cold one, and buckle up. Here are two bets that will get our weekend started right.
I hope everyone has a great weekend. Let’s sweep the card today!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Friday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio
This week we are up (+6.2) Units. Special thanks to Otto Lopez for making this a great week after cashing that +1500 home run for us.
2-Leg Team Total Parlay: Braves & Royals Over 3.5 Runs (+114) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ BetOnline
The Stank:
It is a beautiful Friday to take advantage of mediocre pitchers.
Today, the Braves take on Padres putrid starter Matt Waldron, who has allowed 14 runs in his last three starts. Waldron is posting an ERA of 5.49 and a 1.45 WHIP this season. Teams have gone over this number six of his eight starts this season. According to Batters-Box.com, the 2-year starter will be facing five elite hitters. Today’s average hitter matchup rating for the Braves is 0.449, a decimal away from an elite rating.
Even if Waldron shoves tonight, the Padres bullpen is nothing sexy. They have the seventh-highest era (4.12)
The Braves should have no problem going over this prop, as they are ranked sixth in runs per game, averaging almost five runs per game.
It will be a bullpen game for the Oakland Athletics, with Kyle Muller expected to get the start against the Royals. Muller, a reliever who has been getting some starts the past few games, going over three innings in back-to-back games. In those games, he has allowed three runs and at least four hits in both outings. Muller is posting a 3.90 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP this season. However, the Athletics bullpen, much like the Padres, has been struggling this season, with the sixth-worst ERA (4.37) and WHIP (1.33). This could be an opportunity for the Royals to exploit and score big.
Bobby brings us within one! pic.twitter.com/l3sV209csf
— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) May 15, 2024
The Royals love playing in the cozy confines of Kauffman Stadium. This season, they have been averaging 5.0 runs per game (4th best). Now, they are going up against a team that has been allowing that many runs day in and day out.
Let’s score some runs! It’s Friday!
Tigers Moneyline at Diamondbacks (-135) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
The Stank:
Over in the desert, Tigers ace Tarik Skubal takes on a Diamondbacks team that is coming off a series win over the Reds. Today, Arizona has yet to have a favorable matchup against Skubal. According to Batters-Box.com, the Diamondbacks have zero elite hitters in this matchup. Five Tigers hitters are above the highest-rated Diamondbacks hitter in this game. The top 10 features seven Tigers hitters.
Tarik Skubal currently leads the majors in FIP (2.01)—as it stands now it’s the 2nd lowest mark in @Tigers history behind Bill Donovan in 1908.#MLB | #RepDetroit pic.twitter.com/2cRYIuoVOA
— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) May 17, 2024
On the other side, the Tigers’ offense is poised for a very favorable matchup against Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson. The four-year starter has been known to give up a lot of hard contact, a weakness that the Tigers are sure to exploit. This season, Nelson is posting a 5.33 ERA with a 1.70 WHIP. Against elite hitters, Nelson has allowed 1+ hit 79% of the time, with those hitters going over 1.5 hits, runs, RBI prop 61% of the time. Today, he faces a formidable lineup of seven elite Tigers hitters, according to Batters-Box.com’s current and default ratings.
I am riding with all the data pointing to the boys from the D. Let’s have a Friday!
Where to find more advanced analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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