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MLB Must Bet Props: Yankees vs Guardians Game 5 | October 19, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 3 minutes
mlb
New York Yankees Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-1.5
+150
7
-120o
-115
Cleveland Guardians Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1.5
-160
8
-115u
+105
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See Picks & Statistics For The GameHappy Saturday!
Yankees vs. Guardians, Game 5 of the ALCS — the stakes couldn’t be higher. With the Yankees just one win away from securing their World Series spot, we’re diving back into the first five inning props.
Let’s get into it!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Saturday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Friday’s write up went 1-0. Pete Alonso did homer cashing one of the three sprinkle props.
Yankees vs Guardians F5 Over 4.5 (-135)
Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
After an amazing Friday night, we’re back at it again. Tonight, we head to Game 5 of the ALCS, with the Yankees just one win away from punching their ticket to the World Series. As usual, we’re sticking with first five inning props, and today we’re taking the over 3.5. Tanner Bibee and Carlos Rodon are on the mound, both making their second appearances of the series.
Carlos Rodon
Rodon went six innings on Monday, giving up one run on three hits while striking out ten. However, according to Batters-Box.com, he’s got a poorly rated average hitter matchup in terms of wOBA, ISO, hard contact, and ground ball rate. The Guardians will have four elite-rated hitters in today’s lineup, with no poorly rated ones and only one batter above the league average ground ball rate. This spells trouble for Rodon. While his Game 1 start was impressive, the 31-year-old has struggled with consistency this season, posting a 3.96 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He’s allowed 2+ runs in 22 of his 32 starts.
Tanner Bibee
On the other side, Bibee is coming off a rough outing on Tuesday, where he gave up three runs on five hits in just 1.1 innings. Today, he’s facing a poorly rated average hitter matchup in terms of ISO and ground ball rate. The Yankees feature three elite-rated hitters, with no poorly rated ones and zero batters above the league average ground ball rate. Although Bibee has a slightly better rating than Rodon in hard contact, it’s only a 2% difference — and we know how much damage the Yankee sluggers can do with hard contact.
With both teams combining for five first-five-inning runs over the last three games, and the offensive firepower they’ve shown all series, 3.5 runs feels too low. I’ll gladly root for runs in what’s been an already chaotic series.
Go Yanks.
Sprinkle of the Day:
- Jose Ramirez Home Run (+500)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a play is worth my time or not.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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