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MLB Top Props: Walks & Hit Parlays | April 12th, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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The weekend is finally here, and Fridays are always filled with a ton of MLB games. Today is a special one; there are a ton of mediocre pitchers to take advantage of and some hitters that should have a field day.
Here are my favorite plays of the day.
Top Props for Monday’s MLB Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio
Two weeks into the MLB regular season, I am currently down BAD -10.27 units. The season is so young the numbers are not there yet. I need the middle of May already.
Please, remember to gamble responsibly, there is not need to be insane like Shohei’s translator.
Top MLB Prop: Trevor Rogers Over 1.5 Walks (-156) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ BetOnline
Miami Marlins Pitcher, Trevor Rogers
The Stank:
Struggling in his first two starts of the season, Trevor Rogers is set to face another roster filled with studs. According to Batters-Box.com, the Atlanta Braves enter Friday with two hitters with elite matchup ratings, four with great ratings, and two with above-average ratings.
So far this season, the Braves average a little over three walks per game (15th most). Usually, I would feel confident taking most of the Braves stars to at least get a hit, but I would hate to get burned by walks since Atlanta is filled with disciplined hitters.
Errant pickoff throw by Trevor Rogers leads to another Cardinals run pic.twitter.com/C0HZkOpi0O
— Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) April 6, 2024
It’s a small sample size, but Rogers has gone over this number in his first two starts, averaging 3.5 per start this season, against some of the league’s toughest lineups (Phillies & Cardinals).
The juice is pricey but might be the perfect leg for your weekend starter parlay.
Silly Goose Hit Parlay: Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
The Stank:
Considering the current form of the Braves, it’s highly likely they will outperform the Marlins tonight, especially with Trevor Rogers on the mound. Rogers has been struggling, allowing 5+ hits, 3+ runs, and 3+ walks in each of his two starts this season. His pitching style leads to a lot of hard contact, and his repertoire is far from impressive. Three of his four pitches are currently below league average. While some may argue it’s a small sample size, the numbers from last season tell a similar story.
The Braves, particularly the O Bros, have been in top form in the first two weeks of the season. Ozzie Albies and Marcel Ozuna maintain a batting average well above .300, with an impressive OPS of around 1.000.
They stack up very well against Rogers’ repertoire, destroying at least three of his four pitches this season and last.
Team win ?#BravesCountry pic.twitter.com/qenh6OPJS8
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) April 7, 2024
I liked a bunch of other Braves hitters in this matchup (Austin Riley, Orlando Arcia & Travis d’Arnaud). However, the O Bros numbers stood out the most to me.
Let’s kick off the weekend on a good note with good energy. I hope we all sweep the weekend away!
Where to find more advanced analytics.
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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