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MLB Must Bet Props: Team Totals, Home Runs & Total Bases | July 22, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 3 minutes
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New week, new chances to conquer those books.
Check out these standout plays from the same game on the Baseball slate that caught my attention this morning. Let’s roll!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Monday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
In the last seven days I am up (+24 Units) and in the past 30 days I am up (+74 Units).
Team Total Prop: Mets F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-105)
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The Mets looks to stay hot against the Marlins tonight
The Stank:
I’m all in on these guys—I’m about to make it my third or fourth day in a row betting the Mets to hit over their first five team total prop. They’ve pulled me in every single game, and they’re primed for an offensive explosion.
Especially against Marlins starter Yonny Chirinos, has the worst pitcher rating on today’s slate by Batters-Box.com. He’s up against a Mets lineup that’s just shy of having an elite matchup rating, boasting three elite hitters and zero poor performers, with only one hitter above the league’s strikeout rate.
Miami has been giving up the most runs in the first five innings this season, averaging 3.08 per game overall and 3.13 per game at home. The Mets are overdue for a breakout game in this series, and today feels like their moment to shine.
In the numbers we trust. Amen.
Total Bases Prop: Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+140)
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The Stank:
These odds are downright disrespectful.
Today, New York slugger Pete Alonso steps up with an elite rating from Batters-Box.com. Since returning from the break, he’s already shown solid form, hitting safely in two out of three games. Facing the Marlins, notorious for their struggling rotation, Alonso is poised for a breakout game.
This season, when rated elite, Alonso has surpassed 1.5 bases an impressive 62.5% of the time in just eight games. It’s a small sample size, but the stats speak for themselves. Going up against Miami’s starter Yonny Chirinos, who carries a disappointing 5.76 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP, Alonso’s prospects soar. With Chirinos struggling to deliver effective pitches, this feels like the perfect setup for Alonso to deliver a standout performance.
Sprinkle of the Day: Pete Alonso Home Run (+550)
- When elite over the last three seasons homers 27.59% of the time (58 elite ratings)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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