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MLB Must Bet Props: Team Totals | July 26th, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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They really let us get here—it’s finally the weekend!
To kick things off and satisfy your baseball cravings, here are a few diamond plays that could set the stage for an epic weekend:
Top MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Last night’s card went 1-2 (-0.8 units)
Team Total Prop: Orioles F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-115)
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Baltimore stars Jordan Westburg and Cedric Mullins low-five after scoring
The Stank:
Yes, I’m going back for a fourth time, and yes, Gunnar’s bases and home run are on my card today. But let’s focus on the Orioles and their first five team total prop.
Padres starter Adam Mazur, who takes the mound today, is currently ranked as the worst pitcher according to Batters-Box.com. This rookie has struggled with a 7.84 ERA and a 1.84 WHIP, and his pitch arsenal is below league average. Mazur is allowing a significant amount of hard contact, and he’s given up more than 2.5 runs in five of his seven starts this season.
On the other hand, the Orioles feature five elite-rated hitters and rank among the top five in scoring during the first five innings, averaging 3.12 runs at home this season.
I’m fully backing the Orioles today. I’ve also bet on the first five spread (-0.5) at (-135). Whether it turns into a fantastic Friday evening or a tough one, I’m committed to my process. Let’s go O’s!
Orioles Over 2.5 runs in the first five innings.
Team Total Prop: Giants F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+110)
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The Stank:
Facing Rockies starter Kyle Freeland once again, the San Francisco Giants are set up for another productive offensive night.
Freeland is among the league’s worst pitchers, with a dismal 5.63 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. He’s allowed teams to exceed their total in five of his nine starts this season, including his most recent outing against the Giants. While some might see this as a “revenge spot” for Freeland, the statistics are hard to ignore.
The Giants feature four elite hitters with top-tier matchup grades, positioning them to capitalize on Freeland’s struggles. Additionally, the Rockies are notorious for allowing the second-most runs in the first five innings across MLB.
With the Giants’ team total available at plus money, betting on them to go over is a compelling choice. Baseball’s unpredictability can work in our favor here, and this matchup presents an excellent opportunity for San Francisco.
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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