Mets vs Astros Prediction, Best Bets & Odds (6/19)

Entering the 2023 MLB season, a trip to the World Series would have been the expectation and ambition for the New York Mets, and it was a reasonable expectation for both teams. It could still happen, but they both enter this week’s series in Houston looking for something, anything to get things going amidst ongoing struggles.

Tonight’s series opener at Minute Maid Park is set for an 8:10 pm ET start, and viewers outside of the local markets will be able to catch all of the action on MLB Network.

At the start of the year, this would have been considered a must-see series.

But the Mets (33-38, 16-23 away) are currently fourth in the NL East, 12.5 games behind the first-place Atlanta Braves thanks to a skid that has produced 11 losses in 14 games. The Astros (39-33, 20-18 home) are in third in the AL West, 5.5 games behind the first-place Texas Rangers, and they have lost four in a row and nine of 12.

Which of these struggling MLB squads will pick up a valuable win in Houston? Read on for our predictions and best bets for tonight’s Mets vs Astros matchup.

New York Mets vs Houston Astros Odds

Moneyline

• New York Mets -102
• Houston Astros -118

Over/Under

• Over 7.5 (-115)
• Under 7.5 (-105)

Run Line

• New York Mets +1.5 (-200)
• Houston Astros -1.5 (+170)

Pitching Matchup for Mets vs Astros

• New York Mets: RHP Max Scherzer (11 starts, 5-2, 4.45 ERA)
• Houston Astros: RHP Hunter Brown (13 starts, 6-3, 3.35 ERA)

Will Shaky Scherzer Get Shelled Again?

Overall, it hasn’t been a pleasant stretch for the Mets, who have just won series win in their last seven three or four-game series. This past weekend, they dropped two of three at home against the St. Louis Cardinals, who were just 14-21 on the road prior to their visit to the Big Apple.

When they have pitched fairly well, they often haven’t scored enough. And when they have scored enough, or what should be enough, they often haven’t pitched well enough. Yesterday, they scored seven runs against the Cardinals, but they gave up eight runs, five of which crossed the plate via four homers.

Scherzer has contributed to the latter issue in his last couple of starts.

Against the Braves, he struck out ten, but he allowed five runs and 11 hits in the Mets’ 7-5 loss. Then in his most recent start, he allowed six runs and seven hits in 3.1 innings against the Yankees last Tuesday. He may have received in a no-decision in both games, but the Mets lost both games, 7-5 to the Braves and 7-6 to the Yankees.

Houston had a Sunday that mirrored New York’s in terms of frustration, as they were swept by the Cincinnati Reds at home. They put seven runs on the board, but they fell 9-7 in 10 innings after being unable to hold on to an early 5-2 lead.

However, the outcome was a rare one for the Astros, whereas it has happened far too many times as of late for the Mets. The Astros are 33-6 when scoring five or more runs, but the Mets are just 22-13 in that scenario, including seven losses in the last nine instances.

Can Scherzer find his best stuff to enhance New York’s chances of a win in Houston?

The last time he allowed five or more runs in three consecutive starts was in 2011, when he was with the Detroit Tigers. That was also the last time he finished a season with an ERA over 4.00.

Brown, meanwhile, will take the hill tonight aiming to allow three or fewer runs for the third straight start for just the second time this season. Last Tuesday, he went seven shutout innings at Washington to pick up his sixth win.

New York Mets vs Houston Astros Prediction and Best Bets

Prediction for Mets vs Astros: Astros to win

Best Bet for Mets vs Astros: Astros ML

I think we will see better from Scherzer tonight, but I don’t think it will be enough to help the Mets end their slide.

The Astros are only 18-17 as a home favorite this season when they had excelled as a home favorite in recent seasons, but the Mets are just 3-11 (.214) as a road underdog this season, which is dead last in the league in both wins and win percentage.

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