Orioles vs. Twins (July 3): AL Central leaders look for sweep after two tight wins

After getting walked off twice in two days by the Cleveland Guardians, the Minnesota Twins have turned around and done the same thing to the Baltimore Orioles. As a result, they are in position to break out the brooms in today’s series finale at Target Field.

On Friday, a two-run homer by Byron Buxton in the bottom of the ninth gave the Twins a 3-2 win. In yesterday’s game, Minnesota trailed 3-0 with three at-bats left but scored one in the seventh and one in the eighth, tied it on Jorge Polanco’s solo shot in the bottom of the ninth, then walked it off in the same frame with Jose Miranda’s RBI single.

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— Bally Sports North (@BallySportsNOR) July 2, 2022

Coupled with the Guardians being swept in yesterday’s doubleheader against the Yankees, the Twins’ lead in the AL Central is back to three games.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins Betting Odds and Matchup Information

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Baltimore Orioles (35-44, 17-27 away, 5th in the AL East) vs. Minnesota Twins (45-36, 20-19 home, 1st in the AL Central)
• Venue & Location: Target Field (Minneapolis, Minnesota)
• Date: Sunday, July 3, 2022
• Game Time: 2:10 p.m. Eastern Time (1:10 p.m. local time)
• TV Broadcast/Streaming Info: MASN (Orioles), Bally Sports North (Twins), MLB Extra Innings/MLB.TV (subscription packages)

Orioles vs. Twins Pitching Matchup

• Baltimore Orioles: Tyler Wells (2022: 15 starts, 6-4, 3.23 ERA)
• Minnesota Twins: Devin Smeltzer (2022: 9 starts, 4-1, 2.86 ERA)

Orioles vs. Twins Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. This article may also include odds from other top online sportsbooks that we have reviewed and recommend.

Moneyline

• Baltimore Orioles +146
• Minnesota Twins -174

Over/Under

• OVER 9 (-105)
• UNDER 9 (-115)

Run Line

• Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (-132)
• Minnesota Twins -1.5 (+110)

Should We Expect Another Close, Low-Scoring Affair?

Yesterday’s game was the latest tight game in a season full of them for the Orioles, who have had 44 games decided by one or two runs.

It was the 25th one-run game for both teams, with Baltimore dropping to 10-15 in one-run games and Minnesota improving to 14-11 in one-run games.

With two in-form pitchers on the mound, another close, low-scoring game could be in the cards today.

In his last six starts, Wells is 5-0 with a 1.97 ERA. In 32 innings, he has allowed just seven runs (all earned) and 18 hits.

It is quite the transformation in results for Wells, who was 1-4 with a 4.30 ERA in his first nine starts. He has been especially good in his last three starts, going 3-0 with a 1.13 ERA and allowing just two runs, nine hits, and five walks in 16 innings.

Smeltzer is in the midst of his own nice turnaround. Since allowing a season-high seven runs against the Arizona Diamondbacks on June 17, Smeltzer has made two starts, both against the Guardians.

In the first, he pitched six shutout innings and allowed only three hits, and he picked up the win in a 1-0 win on June 23. In his most recent start, he allowed just one run and four hits and struck out nine, receiving a no-decision in a 3-2 Cleveland win on Tuesday.

After not allowing a home run in his first four starts, Smeltzer allowed seven over the course of three starts. But he didn’t allow a homer in either start against the Guardians, and he didn’t allow a walk in either start as well.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction and Best Bets

Orioles vs. Twins Prediction: Twins to win

Orioles vs. Twins Best Bets: Orioles/Twins UNDER 9 (-105 at Bovada Sportsbook) & Twins to win by 1 to 3 runs (+145 at BetOnline)

When Wells faced the Twins earlier this season in Baltimore, he allowed just one run and four hits in five innings, receiving a no-decision in a 2-1 loss on May 2.

This matchup shouldn’t be much different, with how well he and Smeltzer are pitching at the moment. Minnesota is in the bottom half of the league in runs per game at home, while Baltimore also occupies a spot in the bottom half in runs per game on the road and overall.

Trends also line up well for the under to be the play here. The under is 24-18-1 when the Orioles have been an underdog on the road this season, and it is 26-18-1 in their non-division games. And on their current road swing, which comes to an end today, there have been nine or fewer runs in seven of nine games.

For the Twins, the under is 16-13-1 when they have been a home favorite this season, and there have been nine or fewer combined runs in each of their last six home games.