Padres vs. Mets Game 3 Betting: Will the 101-win Mets move on to a meeting with the Dodgers?

Of the four matchups in the opening round of this year’s MLB playoffs, only one wild-card matchup will be going to a decisive Game 3 today. That will be in the Big Apple, where the #4 New York Mets and #5 San Diego Padres will duel with an NLDS showdown with the Los Angeles Dodgers at stake.

After San Diego’s homer barrage against Max Scherzer guided them to a Game 1 win, New York bounced back in Game 2 to force a winner-take-all game at Citi Field.

Will the Padres win to set up an NLDS showdown with the hated Dodgers, or will the Mets win to put three NL East teams in the next round?

San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: #5 San Diego Padres (1-1) vs. New York Mets (1-1)
• Venue & Location: Citi Field (New York, New York)
• Date: Sunday, October 9, 2022
• Game Time: 7:07 p.m. Eastern Time
• How to Watch Padres vs. Mets Game 3: ESPN

Padres vs. Mets Pitching Matchup

• San Diego: RHP Joe Musgrove (2022: 30 starts, 10-7, 2.93 ERA)
• New York: RHP Chris Bassitt (2022: 30 starts, 15-9, 3.42 ERA)

Padres vs. Mets Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. Odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites may also appear in this article.

Moneyline

• San Diego Padres +120
• New York Mets -142

Over/Under

• Over 6.5 (-115)
• Under 6.5 (-105)

Run Line

• San Diego Padres +1.5 (-196)
• New York Mets -1.5 (+162)

San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets Prediction and Betting Picks

Padres vs. Mets Prediction: Mets to win

Padres vs. Mets Picks: Mets ML (Best Value: -134 at BetUS) & Padres/Mets 1st 5 innings under 3.5 runs (Best Value: -110 at BetMGM)

Just like a four-run inning helped prove decisive for the Padres in their 7-1 Game 1 win, a four-run inning proved decisive for the Mets in their 7-3 win.

After a lot of fireworks in the first two games–especially relative to the other three series–we’re perhaps due for a low-scoring game. But will we get one?

Both Musgrove and Bassitt can occasionally go off of the rails, and both have done so against the opposition that they are facing tonight.

All in all, Bassitt allowed four or more runs nine times in the regular season, four of which came at home. Musgrove, meanwhile, allowed four or more runs eight times, four of which came on the road.

I tend to expect closer or lower-scoring games in situations like these in most team sports. There’s no tomorrow for the team that loses, so both the Padres and Mets will be leaving it all out there.

With that in mind, I expect both Musgrove and Bassitt to keep it tight at least early on.

Home and Away Splits for Joe Musgrove and Chris Bassitt

• Joe Musgrove on the road: 14 starts, 7-3, 3.01 ERA, .229 OBA, 1.06 WHIP
• Chris Bassitt at home: 16 starts, 6-6, 2.95 ERA, .227 OBA, 1.08 WHIP

That said, a total this low doesn’t leave a lot of room for error. I don’t really feel all that comfortable going with it, but I do feel a lot more comfortable with the under for the first five.

As for who wins? That’s a real toss-up, but my nod will go to the team that won 101 games.

For all that can be said about how they lost a big lead in the NL East, the Braves played 113-win baseball over their final 112 games (78-34).

In the same stretch (from June 1), the Mets played at a 98-win pace. That is still pretty darn good. I expect them to show up tonight and set up a showdown with the Dodgers.