Padres vs Reds Prediction & Picks (June 30): Bats Come Alive at Great American Ball Park

The San Diego Padres will try to put their losing ways behind them when they begin a three-game series with the Cincinnati Reds on Friday, June 30. San Diego did win the first Padres vs Reds series of the 2023 MLB season back in early May, making it interesting to see if Bob Melvin’s club can recreate that result at the Great American Ball Park.

Last Friday in the City Connects was electric. Let's do it again.https://t.co/hIPHo2Y03x pic.twitter.com/96R2htTF50

— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) June 29, 2023

The Padres’ losing streak was extended to five consecutive games with a 5-4 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Reds were last in action on Wednesday, notching an 11-7 victory over the Baltimore Orioles after scoring four unanswered runs in the 10th inning.

Can the Padres stop the bleeding before they sink further under .500? Or will the Reds find a way to win their third straight outing?

Here’s a look at everything you know heading into this evening’s Padres vs Reds showdown, from the latest betting odds to a prediction with the best betting recommendation, courtesy of Betting News.

San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds Game Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: San Diego Padres (37-44, 17-22 Away) vs. Cincinnati Reds (43-38, 21-20 Home)
• Venue & Location: Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati, Ohio)
• Date: Friday, June 30, 2023
• Game Time: 5:10 p.m. Eastern Time
• Where to Watch Padres vs Reds: MLB.TV, Bally Sports Ohio

Padres vs Reds Odds

Game odds as of Thursday, June 29 at 9:30 p.m. ET from BetOnline. Odds from other sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Spread

• San Diego Padres -1.5 (+115)
• Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-135)

Over/Under

• Over 11 Runs (+101)
• Under 11 Runs (-121)

Moneyline

• San Diego Padres -128
• Cincinnati Reds +118

Padres vs Reds Starting Pitchers

• Padres: Seth Lugo (10 starts — 3-4, 4.01 ERA)
• Reds: Graham Ashcraft (14 starts—3-6, 7.17 ERA)

Padres vs Reds Betting Trends

• San Diego is 1-7 straight up in its last eight road games.
• Cincinnati is 14-3 straight up in its last 17 games.
• The total has hit the over in five of San Diego’s last seven games.
• The total has hit the over in four of Cincinnati’s last five home games.
• The total has hit the over in four of the last six San Diego-Cincinnati matchups.

Padres vs Reds Game Preview

This game is a tale between two teams heading in completely opposite directions.

On one hand, there are the Padres, who are an abysmal 4-10 in their last 14 games. They’ve been absolutely thumped during their five-game skid, getting outscored 31-12 over that stretch.

Making matters worse is the fact that the Padres have been dreadful on the road over the last few weeks. They’ve lost seven of their previous eight away contests, including the last three in a row. Now they must play this evening’s match at the Great American Ball Park, where the Reds are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.

Speaking of the Reds, they’ve one of the MLB’s hottest teams this month. Since June 5, Cincinnati’s 77.3% winning percentage ranks second-best in the Majors, only trailing the rival Atlanta Braves (85.7%). When it comes to other team stats over that span, the Reds rank second in runs scored (131), third in home runs (36), first in stolen bases (34), and third in on-base + slugging percentage (.822).

It also hasn’t just been one or two players showing up for the Reds. A good chunk of the team has shown up, highlighted by 10 different Cincinnati players recording at least three home runs during the impressive run.

Steer Clear!

Spencer Steer hits a 2-run HR to cut the lead down to 4. #Reds pic.twitter.com/YgGUEXquZ5

— Bally Sports Cincinnati (@BallySportsCIN) June 27, 2023

The chances of the Reds winning one final game to close the month hinge on starting pitcher Graham Ashcraft. After going 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA in his first seven starts of the 2023 campaign, Ashcraft is a putrid 1-6 with a 12.82 ERA in his last eight starts, having allowed 48 runs on 59 hits over 33 innings.

Nevertheless, it isn’t like Seth Lugo has been performing much better. The Padres’ starting arm is 0-2 with a 5.50 ERA in his previous four starts and even though he didn’t get the decision in two of those appearances, San Diego still lost every game.

In fact, the last time the Padres were victorious in one of Lugo’s starts was on May 3 — nearly two months ago. It’s not all grim, though. His last victory actually came against the Padres, striking out five batters while allowing one run on seven hits over six innings in a 7-1 blowout.

It’s going to take a lot for the Padres to reverse their fortunes, but that goal becomes more attainable if Lugo pitches well.

Padres vs Reds Prediction and Picks

Padres vs Reds Prediction: Reds 7, Padres 5

Padres vs Reds Best Bet: Reds +1.5 (Best Value: -135 ) & Over 11 Runs (Best Value: +101)

Even with how poorly Ashcraft has pitched, the Padres’ skid is bad enough that I’m taking the Reds to stand tall at home. Again, Cincy is one of the MLB’s best teams this month and its batters are good enough to overcome any pitching-related shortcomings that might surface. Even if the Padres win, the Reds can keep things close, meaning taking the latter on the spread is one solid bet.

Another good bet is to back the over on the 11-run total. For starters, the over is 5-2 in San Diego’s previous seven games while being 5-1 in Cincinnati’s last six. The over has also been hit in four of the last six Padres vs Reds matchups, going over 11 runs thrice.

With how poorly Ashcraft and Lugo have been playing on the mound, I’ll be far from shocked if at least a dozen runs are scored this afternoon.

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