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Padres vs Tigers: Prediction, Odds, & Best Bets (July 23)
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Updated:
Read Time: 3 minutes
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The Padres and Tigers close out a three game series tonight, and Detroit is probably ready to send San Diego on their way.
This hasn’t been an enjoyable series for the Tigers, as they’ve lost the last two games.
On Friday Night, the Padres jumped out to a 5-0 lead after 3 innings and never looked back. The Tigers made it interesting in the late innings, but still lost the game 5-4.
Saturday was even worse for Detroit.
After 2 full innings, the Tigers led the Padres 3-0. And then all hell broke loose.
The Padres score 4, 1, and 5 in consecutive half innings, and ended up scoring 14 unanswered runs, on their way to a 14-3 routing of the home town Tigers.
Today, Detroit will try to win at least one game, while the Padres look to complete the sweep.
Let’s break down today’s game!
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Padres vs Tigers Game Information
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Comerica Park (Detroit, MI)
- Date: Sunday, July 23rd, 2023
- First Pitch: 12:05pm Eastern
- Broadcast: Peacock
Pitching Matchup
- San Diego Padres: Joe Musgrove (9-2, 3.16 ERA)
- Detroit Tigers: Alex Faedo (1-5, 6.98 ERA)
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of Bovada.
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Runline
- Padres -1.5 (-145)
- Tigers +1.5 (+125)
Moneyline
- Padres -240
- Tigers +195
Total
- Over 8.5 (-105)
- Under 8.5 (-115)
Padres vs Tigers Prediction & Best Bets
At least the Tigers social team still has their spirits high.
The Tigers are 3rd in the AL Central, the worst division in the MLB. The Twins lead the division at 51-48, but their .515 win percentage would put them at 3rd place at best otherwise.
Detroit is 20-27 at home, but the Padres are on 23-28 on the road, with two of those wins coming the past two games against Detroit.
I lean heavily with San Diego, but don’t see any value on either side or total.
So let’s dive into my favorite player props!
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Player Props
Joe Musgrove over 6.5 Strikeouts (-110) Bovada
Musgrove has only gotten 7+ Ks in 5 of his 15 starts this season, but he’s done so in four of his last five games as well. This includes 6 Ks in the one start in which he did not clear this line.
Recently, the man has been sitting batters down.
He averages 1.01 K/Inning, and had 7+ in his last two starts only going six innings. Musgrove is efficient with his pitches and gets the job done.
Not to mention the Tigers strikeout a ton against righties.
Overall, the Tigers are 4th in K% against RHP, striking out 24.2% of the time. Over the past month, that number is up t 26.5%.
I think we see a solid outing from Musgrove, sitting down batters, and keeping them off the bases all together.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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