Phillies vs Braves: MLB Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (8/21)

Two NL East teams face off today in Atlanta as the Braves host the Phillies. Tonight is the second game of this three game series, and the Braves were able to get the best of Philly last night. Atlanta won 3-1, and despite being 6 games behind the Phillies in the division, they actually lead the regular season series 5-2. These teams will share one more series before the season is over, but the Phillies lead is dwindling in the NL East.

Philadelphia once had a double digit lead on the Braves in the NL East, but after losing 2 straight, they are just 6 games ahead of the Braves. Time is running out, but the Braves could still string together some wins and take this division. Philadelphia has lost 4 straight games on the road, and are in the middle of a tough road trip, as they travel to Kansas City following this series.

Will the Phillies bounce back tonight in Atlanta? Or can the Braves find a 4th straight win?

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves: NL East Showdown

Game Information – Phillies vs Braves

• Venue & Location: Truist Park (Atlanta, GA)
• Date: Wednesday, August 21st, 2024
• First Pitch: 7:20pm Eastern

Phillies vs Braves Starting Pitchers

• Philadelphia Phillies: Aaron Nola (11-6, 3.45 ERA, 1.16 WHIP)
• Atlanta Braves: Max Fried (7-7, 3.62 ERA, 1.25 WHIP)

Betting Odds

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Run Line

• Phillies +1.5 (-215)
• Braves -1.5 (+185)

Money Line

• Phillies -103
• Braves -107

Total

• Over 8 (-104)
• Under 8 (-116)

Aaron Nola Starts Against the Braves Tonight

Aaron Nola starts for the Phillies tonight, and although he is having a great season, his last few starts have been iffy. Nola has not won a game since the All Star Break, and has lost his L2 road outings. In Nola’s last 2 starts on the road, he has allowed 7 runs in 11 innings off of 17 hits. Nola has only struck out 4 batters in each of his L4 starts, but he did pitch very well last time out. Against the Nationals at home, Nola pitched 6.2 shutout innings, allowing 7 hits and 2 walks. Philadelphia has lost 5 of the L6 games that Nola has seen the mound, and with his splits virtually unchanged, it could be a rough start for him.

Luckily for Nola, he has seen the Braves twice already. In those 2 starts, Nola is 1-1, but they were months apart. Back in March, the Phillies lost 12-4 to the Braves, after Nolas lasted just 4.1 innings. He gave up 2 home runs and 6 earned runs total on 11 hits in Philly, however he did figure it out his next time out. On the road on July 5th, Nola pitched 6 innings while allowing 3 runs on 5 hits, but giving up 2 home runs as well. He struck out 8 batters and picked up the win. Atlanta is hitting .251 in August, but their team average drops to .237 against RHP.

As for the Braves pitching, Max Fried gets the nod. The lefty has an inflated ERA at home and his WHIP jumps to 1.54 at Truist Park. As for his recent performance, it has not been good. Fried has not won a game since June 23rd, and has not pitched well at all.

Max Fried Since July

• 25.2 Innings Pitched
• 6.42 ERA
• 1.87 WHIP

Fried has already seen the Phillies twice and neither has gone well. In his first start of the season, Fried didn’t even make it a full inning against Philly. He pitched just 0.2 innings before allowing 3 runs on 2 hits and 3 walks in the process. He escaped without a decision as the Braves went on to win 12-4. Now more recently, he pitched against the Phillies on July 5th and took the loss. Fried allowed 5 runs on 11 hits, including 2 home runs in 6 innings. The Braves lost this game 8-6. Since then, it’s been all downhill for Fried, and tonight he has his work cut out for him against the Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Best Bets

Phillies vs Braves Prediction: Phillies Win

Best Bet: Phillies F5 TT Over 1.5 (-145) BetOnline

I am going big on the Phillies’ bats today to score some runs early and often. For a team that has lit this guy up already and hits .274 as a team against lefties, I have no idea why this line is so low. The Phillies were able to clear this F5 number in both time they faced Fried, and even scored 3 runs before the end of the 1st inning in one matchup. They’ve only scored 4+ runs against the Braves in 3 of 7 games this season, but they did it both times that Fried started.

The Phillies pound lefties, Fried has already struggled against this team twice, and he has been very, very bad over the last two months. Philadelphia only has one Elite hitter today against Fried, but I am backing the historical data that they should be able to score som runs off of him. There are 5 Philly hitters with at least a .300 batting average and a minimum of 18 appearances against Fried.

• Alec Bohm: .333 AVG, 27 AB
• Nick Castellanos: .611 AVG, 18 AB
• Bryce Harper: .303 AVG, 33 AB
• J.T. Realmuto: .381 AVG, 42 AB
• Treat Turner: .395 AVG, 43 AB

Of Phillies with 20+ AB against Fried, Kyle Schwarber is the only one hitting below .300. We know what the Phillies bats are capable of, and tonight I think we get one hell of a show from them.

Bonus Bet: Phillies TT Over 3.5 (-131) BetOnline

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