Phillies vs. Cardinals Game 1 Betting: Do season splits forecast potential series-opening struggles for St. Louis?

Will we have a little revenge 11 years in the making this weekend in the NL Wild Card series between the #6 Philadelphia Phillies and #3 St. Louis Cardinals?

In 2011, Philadelphia won 102 games and the NL East title, led by the late, great Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels. And in the final series of the MLB regular season, they swept the Braves in Atlanta, enabling the Cardinals to complete a miracle comeback to land a wild-card spot.

The two teams then met in the NLDS, and the underdog Cards overcame a 2-1 deficit to win the series. In Game 5 in Philadelphia–which took place exactly 11 years ago today–Chris Carpenter outdueled Halladay, pitching a three-hit shutout and riding a solitary first-inning run to eliminate the favored Phils.

(Look away, Phillies fans.)

St. Louis went on to win the World Series, while Philadelphia didn’t have another winning season until last year and another playoff berth until this season.

Today, the Phillies will look to win their first playoff game since October 4, 2011. Will they put themselves within a win of an NLDS matchup with the rival Braves, or will the Cardinals move into the driver’s seat?

Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: #6 Philadelphia Phillies (0-0) vs. #3 St. Louis Cardinals (0-0)
• Venue & Location: Busch Stadium (St. Louis, Missouri)
• Date: Friday, October 7, 2022
• Game Time: 2:07 p.m. Eastern Time (1:07 p.m. local time)
• How to Watch Phillies vs. Cardinals Game 1: ABC

Phillies vs. Cardinals Game 1 Pitching Matchup

• Philadelphia: RHP Zack Wheeler (2022 regular season: 26 starts, 12-7, 2.82 ERA)
• St. Louis: LHP Jose Quintana (2022 regular season: 32 starts, 6-7, 2.93 ERA – 3-2, 2.01 ERA in 12 starts with Cardinals)

Phillies vs. Cardinals Game 1 Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. Odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites may also appear in this article.

Moneyline

• Philadelphia Phillies -110
• St. Louis Cardinals -106

Over/Under

• Over 6.5 (-124)
• Under 6.5 (+102)

Run Line

• Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+162)
• St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 (-196)

Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals Game 1 Prediction and Betting Picks

Phillies vs. Cardinals Prediction: Cardinals to win

Phillies vs. Cardinals Picks: Phillies/Cardinals 1st half over 3.5 runs (Best Value: +104 at BetOnline) & Cardinals ML (Best Value: -106 at BetOnline)

Could this be the worst possible matchup for the Cardinals to open this series?

Quintana has been fantastic for St. Louis since he was acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates. He did not allow more than two earned runs in any of his 12 starts, and the Cards posted a 9-3 record in those starts.

But the Phillies were much better against LHP than RHP in the regular season, which raises a bit of concern.

2022 Regular Season Batting Splits for Philadelphia vs. LHP and RHP

• Batting average vs. LHP: .266
• BA vs. RHP: .248
• Batting average in games started by LHP: .262
• BA in games started by RHP: .250
• Runs per game in games started by LHP: 4.91
• Runs per game in games started by RHP: 4.49

At the same time, while there isn’t much of a disparity between how the Cardinals have fared in games started by either LHP or RHP, they hit much worse against RHP than LHP.

2022 Regular Season Batting Splits for St. Louis vs. LHP and RHP

• Batting average vs. RHP: .249
• BA vs. LHP: .263
• Batting average in games started by RHP: .252
• BA in games started by LHP: .254
• Runs per game in games started by RHP: 4.58
• Runs per game in games started by LHP: 5.14

Now, those numbers aren’t bad at all when you put them up against most teams, including the Phillies. St. Louis is actually seventh in the league in batting average in games started by RHP, two spots ahead of Philadelphia.

But when you are facing one of the best righties in the league and someone who has allowed just one run, nine hits, and one walk in his last 16 innings, those numbers do forecast a potentially challenging day at the plate for the home team.

I don’t really trust the Phillies in late innings, however. Wheeler is likely to go deeper in this one than in his previous three starts, when he threw 58, 62, and 77 pitches. But I just can’t trust Philadelphia’s pen, which ranked 23rd in bullpen ERA in the regular season (4.27).

I think things will be tight after the first several innings, but the Cardinals will ultimately pull out the Game 1 win.

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