Phillies vs. Cubs (Sept. 29): Will Philadelphia’s positive playoff position blow away in the Windy City?

After two disastrous days in Chicago, the Philadelphia Phillies are in a rather perilous position with eight games remaining in the regular season.

The Milwaukee Brewers didn’t take advantage of the gift that the Chicago Cubs gave them on Tuesday night, but they did last night by evening their series with the St. Louis Cardinals.

Entering this afternoon’s finale at Wrigley Field, Philadelphia is now just a half-game ahead of Milwaukee, who begins a four-game series against the Miami Marlins tonight, for the final NL wild-card spot.

So, today is one of the biggest days of the season for the Phillies, who need a win, both for the sake of their place in the NL wild-card standings and to restore some positivity after losing four straight games.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies (83-71, 36-37 away, 3rd in the NL East) vs. Chicago Cubs (69-86, 33-44 home, 3rd in the NL Central)
• Venue & Location: Wrigley Field (Chicago, Illinois)
• Date: Thursday, September 29, 2022
• Game Time: 2:20 p.m. Eastern Time (1:20 p.m. local time)
• How to Watch Phillies vs. Cubs: MLB Network

Phillies vs. Cubs Pitching Matchup

• Philadelphia: LHP Ranger Suarez (2022: 27 starts, 10-5, 3.38 ERA)
• Chicago: RHP Javier Assad (2022: 7 appearances – 6 starts, 1-2, 4.28 ERA)

Phillies vs. Cubs Odds

Game odds are via BetUS. This article may also include odds from reputable legal online sports betting sites that we have reviewed and recommend.

Moneyline

• Philadelphia Phillies -195
• Chicago Cubs +165

Over/Under

• Over 8 (-109)
• Under 8 (-112)

Run Line

• Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-120)
• Chicago Cubs +1.5 (-105)

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs Prediction and Betting Odds

Phillies vs. Cubs Prediction: Cubs to win

Phillies vs. Cubs Picks: Cubs +1.5 (Best Value: +100 at BetOnline) & Cubs ML (Best Value: +165 at BetUS)

Suarez is 6-1 with a 2.67 ERA in 14 road starts this season, and he has allowed two or fewer runs nine times on the road.

But he hasn’t had too much good fortune in his travels recently. The Phillies went 9-1 in his first ten road starts this season, but they have dropped his last four road starts, including his most recent one in Atlanta almost two weeks ago.

Home and Away Splits for Ranger Suarez

• Home (13 starts): 4-4, 4.27 ERA, .272 OBA, 1.52 WHIP
• Away (14 starts): 6-1, 2.67 ERA, .216 OBA, 1.12 WHIP

It’s not all Suarez’s fault, however. He received a no-decision in all four starts and pitched very, very well in Atlanta and at Cincinnati last month. And of the six runs he allowed in 3.2 innings at Arizona last month, only two were earned.

He needs to pitch well today, but he also needs better run support than he has received in a number of his recent starts as well.

In his first 19 starts, the Phillies scored four or more runs. But in his last eight starts, they have scored four or more runs just three times.

That tidbit is especially glaring with Chicago having limited Philadelphia to just three runs in the first two games of this series.

After managing just five hits in Tuesday’s 2-1 loss, the Phils wasted 11 hits in last night’s 2-1 loss, going 2 for 16 with runners in scoring position.

Such a cold night in the clutch can be a killer at any point, but this is the worst possible time for that to happen, especially when they are the answer to the question “Which team leads MLB in batting average with RISP?” Talk about pain with a capital P.

As several teams around the league are showing right now, it is hard to wrap up a division title or a playoff spot, especially when you have not done so before (hi, Philadelphia and Seattle).

The Phillies are understandably firm favorites in this matchup, certainly. But with Chicago trending up (11-4 in their last 15 games) and Philadelphia trending down (3-9 in their last 12 games), I love the value with the Cubbies in this spot.

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